R&L Symmetric Analysis : Gold Surges After Trump Nominates Gold Standard Advocate Judy Shelton To Fed Board

mercoledì 3 luglio 2019

Gold Surges After Trump Nominates Gold Standard Advocate Judy Shelton To Fed Board

For those who haven't heard of Waller before, it's hardly a shock: it appears to be his intention to keep a low profile.

This is what we do know about Waller, from his St Louis Fed profile:

He received his B.S. in economics from Bemidji State University in 1981, and his M.A. and Ph.D. from Washington State University in 1984 and 1985, respectively. His principal research interests are monetary theory, political economy and macroeconomic theory.
Prior to joining the Fed as research director in June 2009, Mr. Waller served as a professor and the Gilbert F. Schaefer Chair of Economics at the University of Notre Dame. He was also a research fellow with Notre Dame's Kellogg Institute for International Studies.
From 2006 to 2007, he served as the acting department chair for Notre Dame's Department of Economics and Econometrics. From 1998 to 2003, Mr. Waller was a professor and the Carol Martin Gatton Chair of Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics at the University of Kentucky. During that time, he was also a research fellow at the Center for European Integration Studies (ZEI) at the University of Bonn. From 1992-1994, he served as the director of graduate studies at Indiana University's Department of Economics, where he also served as associate professor (1992 to 1998) and an assistant professor (1985 to 1992).

However, the reason why gold is spiking after hours, is that shortly after tweeting the Waller nomination, Trump also confirmed the previously rumored nomination of Judy Shelton to the Fed board:

I am pleased to announce that it is my intention to nominate Judy Shelton, Ph. D., U.S. Executive Dir, European Bank of Reconstruction & Development to be on the board of the Federal Reserve Judy is a Founding Member of the board of directors of Empower America and has served on the board of directors of Hilton Hotels.

Courtesy of Mish Shedlock we previously profiled Shelton, a Trump economic advisor and a gold standard advocate:

This is what Bloomberg reported back in May: "The White House is considering conservative economist Judy Shelton to fill one of the two vacancies on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors that President Donald Trump has struggled to fill. She's currently U.S. executive director for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and previously worked for the Sound Money Project, which was founded to promote awareness about monetary stability and financial privacy."

On April 21, Judy Shelton had an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal: The Case for Monetary Regime Change.

Since President Trump announced his intention to nominate Herman Cain and Stephen Moore to serve on the Federal Reserve's board of governors, mainstream commentators have made a point of dismissing anyone sympathetic to a gold standard as crankish or unqualified.
But it is wholly legitimate, and entirely prudent, to question the infallibility of the Federal Reserve in calibrating the money supply to the needs of the economy. No other government institution had more influence over the creation of money and credit in the lead-up to the devastating 2008 global meltdown. And the Fed's response to the meltdown may have exacerbated the damage by lowering the incentive for banks to fund private-sector growth.
What began as an emergency decision in the wake of the financial crisis to pay interest to commercial banks on excess reserves has become the Fed's main mechanism for conducting monetary policy. To raise interest rates, the Fed increases the rate it pays banks to keep their $1.5 trillion in excess reserves—eight times what is required—parked in accounts at Federal Reserve district banks. Rewarding banks for holding excess reserves in sterile depository accounts at the Fed rather than making loans to the public does not help create business or spur job creation.
Meanwhile, for all the talk of a "rules-based" system for international trade, there are no rules when it comes to ensuring a level monetary playing field. The classical gold standard established an international benchmark for currency values, consistent with free-trade principles. Today's arrangements permit governments to manipulate their currencies to gain an export advantage.
Money is meant to serve as a reliable unit of account and store of value across borders and through time. It's entirely reasonable to ask whether this might be better assured by linking the supply of money and credit to gold or some other reference point as opposed to relying on the judgment of a dozen or so monetary officials meeting eight times a year to set interest rates. A linked system could allow currency convertibility by individuals (as under a gold standard) or foreign central banks (as under Bretton Woods). Either way, it could redress inflationary pressures.

Judy Shelton is author of the 1998 book Money Meltdown; and previously she had concluded that "Central bankers, and their defenders, have proven less than omniscient."

So why does Trump want Shelton on the board? Simple: she previously said that if appointed, she would lower interest rates to 0% in one to two years. That's all markets had to known and following the news that Shelton is being nominated to the Fed board, gold spiked $10 from $1,425 to $1,435 in minutes, as Trump's push for ZIRP (and soon after, NIRP) just took on an added urgency.