MARKET FLASH:

"It seems the donkey is laughing, but he instead is braying (l'asino sembra ridere ma in realtà raglia)": si veda sotto "1927-1933: Pompous Prognosticators" per avere la conferma che la storia non si ripete ma fà la rima.


lunedì 25 dicembre 2017

Ponzi Supernova


Most people don't believe that social mood drives markets, which is the only reason it works. Conning the same sheeple over and over again. The most crowded "investment" is now "useless"...

Social Mood is blowing off into the tax cut. Gamblers are chasing from one ponzi bubble to the next, trying to keep the buzz alive. Scammers are recycling the fake narratives hourly to keep the dumb money flowing... 

Recall the last time Bitcoin Cash exploded to the upside and Bitcoin (original) imploded back to the 50 day. It was early November when the Segwit2x fork was cancelled. The narrative back then was that Bitcoin original is dead because it can't scale, therefore Bitcoin Cash is the future. Of course, shortly after that pump and dump, Bitcoin Cash imploded and Bitcoin original began its parabolic 300% ascent in four weeks. 

Now this:




ZH: Bitcoin Flash Crashes. Bitcoin Cash Up 60%
"According to Bitcoin.com co-founder and CTO Emil Oldenburg, Bitcoin is "useless" and has no future as a tradeable currency, citing high transaction fees and long lead times"



In other words, Bitcoin lost its momentum and another toy had to be found to replace it. Speculators have lost interest and the uptrend for the world's most crowded Ponzi scheme is now in jeopardy:




"We're going to need another futures exchange"




And now ANYTHING with the word "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" in the name, business prospectus or Twitter feed is going parabolic:






As always, context is everything:





Speaking of late stage junk, Twitter is now "leading" this rally...




Here is how much money is about to be vaporized:




I meant, here:




Fabrizio 

1929 Is Now Priced In


In 1929 at the height of the Roaring '20s stock market bubble, Republicans elected Herbert Hoover, a businessman with no prior political experience. Stocks ramped higher late into his first year on the promise of deregulation and tax cuts. Then crashed 90%...


America's pseudo-elite are as tone deaf as a brick. They're making America Great Again by taking proven failure to level '11':


"George Orwell once offered an excellent explanation for this phenomenon: as the imperial end-game approaches, it becomes a matter of imperial self-preservation to breed a special-purpose ruling class—one that is incapable of understanding that the end-game is approaching" - Club Orlov, License to Kill



"The latest polling by the Wall Street Journal and NBC News shows the tax bill not only unpopular among American voters but accelerating in unpopularity during its brief period in the public eye. Few respondents, the Journal reported, believe it will cut taxes for the middle class or for their own families. More than two-thirds of respondents perceive the law as designed mostly to help corporations and the wealthy."

Wall Street Journal: Only 10% of Republican tax cut goes to middle class, congressional monitor says

Cohn, of course, similarly confessed to being in the dark at a Wall Street Journal CEOs event in mid-November as to why few executives were willing to raise their hands in an informal pledge to invest in their companies and boost hiring once corporate taxes were cut."

Beyond the 37 year proven failure of trickle down Ponzinomics, there is a much more imminent reason why Americans are skeptical of the latest tax cut. The Fed has been raising rates in lockstep with the year-long passage of tax cut legislation. The "pause" in rates during 2016 gave way to a steady rise in rate hikes throughout 2017.

Now consumer credit delinquencies are the highest since late 2008:




The Trump tax cut pulled forward consumption, which will be financed at a higher interest rate:




What has been interesting in this cycle, has been the massive short-covering rally in left-for-dead retail stocks into the tax cut. 

Of course we saw the exact same thing at the end of the last cycle:




The question on the table is will the RepubliCon tax cut for the ultra-wealthy, offset the rise in delinquences from Fed rate hikes?

Most Americans already know the answer to that question, even if the Trump administration and stock market gamblers remain clueless, by design...








'b' waves are fake rallies premised upon deteriorating economic fundamentals and unfounded optimism


Crypto Ponzi Collapse

At current price levels, the CME futures will open halted limit down. Gamblers will not be happy as the underlying has no such mechanism. Putting futures on this ponzi scheme was the dumbest fucking thing Wall Street has ever done. $130 billion in lost market cap since the CME contract began trading 5 days ago.

This is the biggest one day loss for the year. Closing in on the rising 50 day. When the last major one day loss occurred in September - which was albeit smaller - Bitcoin fell a further -25% below the 50 day, meaning 7,500 now: