R&L Symmetric Analysis

Economic commentaries, articles and news reflecting my personal views, present trends and trade opportunities. By F. F. F. Russo (PLEASE NO MISUNDERSTANDING: IT'S FREE).

MARKET FLASH:

"It seems the donkey is laughing, but he instead is braying (l'asino sembra ridere ma in realtà raglia)": si veda sotto "1927-1933: Pompous Prognosticators" per avere la conferma che la storia non si ripete ma fà la rima.

venerdì 23 agosto 2019

The Anatomy of the Coming Recession by Nouriel Roubini - Project Syndicate

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/global-recession-us-china-trade-war-by-nouriel-roubini-2019-08

Fabrizio

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Economist and market analyst. This site is intended to explore market trend in order to identify correctly market trends, inflections and trend inversion points. Conclusions and indications are only for research purposes and based on our proprietary "Directional System Analysis Tool"

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Price movements announce news

Have you ever read about an epidemic event on a newspaper before the desease spreaded enough? Impossibile you'll say. Correct. So why a price movement should happen only after the price-sensitive news is published? Before publishing the event, described in the forecoming news, has arisen and formed gradually starting from premises and many people argued about it: it's not an insider trading question, it'a a learning and epidemic process question. Think about it!

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tout vient à temps à qui sait attendre

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LEGENDA:

(UT: uptrend; DT: downtrend; LM: lateral movement; LMB: LM Bottoming; DTB: downtrend Bottoming; LMT: LM topping; UTT: uptrend topping; +: Starting phase; ++: Intermediate phase; +++: Final phase; nIVdate: last order n inversion date); -> : phase transition. ALERT= danger swift movement

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All information in this blog is provided for general information and educational purposes only.Everything expressed herein constitutes the subjective judgement of the author as of the date indicated and is subject to change without notice.The information in this blog is expressed in good faith, but its accuracy is not guaranteed.Nothing in this blog is intended to be, nor shall it be construed, as trading or investment advice, nor is it to be relied upon in making any trading, investment or other decision.Prior to making any trading or investment decision, you are advised to consult with your broker, trade and investment advisor or other appropriate tax or financial professional to determine the suitability of any trade or investment.Author of this blog shall not be responsible or have any liability for trade or investment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided.

1927-1933 Chart of Pompous Prognosticators

1927-1933 Chart of Pompous Prognosticators

Versi in Pillole

"In questo progresso scorsoio non so se sono ingoiato od ingoio" da Andrea Zanzotto.

Lettori fissi

1927-1933: Pompous Prognosticators

1) "We will not have any more crashes in our time."- John Maynard Keynes in 1927 (Conversation with Felix Somary in 1927, reported in Felix Somary, The Raven of Zurich, London: C. Hurst, 1986 (1960), 146-7). In spite of his brilliance as an economist, Keynes failed to see the crash coming and is reported to have remained fully invested and lost one million English pounds in the Crash of ’29.

2) "I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fool's paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future."- E. H. H. Simmons, President, New York Stock Exchange, January 12, 1928

"There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity."- Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928

3) "No Congress of the United States ever assembled, on surveying the state of the Union, has met with a more pleasing prospect than that which appears at the present time. In the domestic field there is tranquility and contentment...and the highest record of years of prosperity. In the foreign field there is peace, the goodwill which comes from mutual understanding."- Calvin Coolidge December 4, 1928

4) "There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash."- Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929

5) "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929. Professor Irving Fisher, Ph.D. Economics, held steadfastly to his view of an imminent recovery from the Crash of ‘29, and went on to lose close to $140 million in today’s dollars. Defying his predictions, the Dow lost some 90 per cent over the next two years and investment trusts crashed 95 per cent.

"This crash is not going to have much effect on business."- Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929

"There will be no repetition of the break of yesterday... I have no fear of another comparable decline."- Arthur W. Loasby (President of the Equitable Trust Company), quoted in NYT, Friday, October 25, 1929

"We feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices." - Goodbody and Company market-letter quoted in The New York Times, Friday, October 25, 1929

6) "This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J. P. Morgan... that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years."- R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929 .

"Buying of sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted" - E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929.

"Some pretty intelligent people are now buying stocks... Unless we are to have a panic -- which no one seriously believes, stocks have hit bottom." - R. W. McNeal, financial analyst in October 1929 .

7) "The decline is in paper values, not in tangible goods and services...America is now in the eighth year of prosperity as commercially defined. The former great periods of prosperity in America averaged eleven years. On this basis we now have three more years to go before the tailspin."- Stuart Chase (American economist and author), NY Herald Tribune, November 1, 1929 .

"Hysteria has now disappeared from Wall Street."- The Times of London, November 2, 1929 .

"The Wall Street crash doesn't mean that there will be any general or serious business depression... For six years American business has been diverting a substantial part of its attention, its energies and its resources on the speculative game... Now that irrelevant, alien and hazardous adventure is over. Business has come home again, back to its job, providentially unscathed, sound in wind and limb, financially stronger than ever before." - Business Week, November 2, 1929

"...despite its severity, we believe that the slump in stock prices will prove an intermediate movement and not the precursor of a business depression such as would entail prolonged further liquidation..." - Harvard Economic Society (HES), November 2, 1929

8) "... a serious depression seems improbable; [we expect] recovery of business next spring, with further improvement in the fall." - HES, November 10, 1929

"The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most." - Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, November 14, 1929.

"In most of the cities and towns of this country, this Wall Street panic will have no effect."- Paul Block (President of the Block newspaper chain), editorial, November 15, 1929

"Financial storm definitely passed."- Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929

9) "I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism... I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress." - Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929

"I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence." - Herbert Hoover, December 1929

"[1930 will be] a splendid employment year."- U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year's Forecast, December 1929

10) "For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright." - Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930

11) "...there are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over..." - Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan 18, 1930

12) "There is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about." - Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon, Feb 1930

13) "The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern...American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity." - Julius Barnes, head of Hoover's National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930

14) "... the outlook continues favorable..." - HES Mar 29, 1930

"... the outlook is favorable..." - HES Apr 19, 1930

15) "While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst -- and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us." - Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930

"...by May or June the spring recovery forecast in our letters of last December and November should clearly be apparent..." - HES May 17, 1930

"Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over."- Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930

16) "... irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a sustained recovery..." - HES June 28, 1930

17) "... the present depression has about spent its force..." - HES, Aug 30, 1930 .

18) "We are now near the end of the declining phase of the depression." - HES Nov 15, 1930.

19) "Stabilization at [present] levels is clearly possible." - HES Oct 31, 1931 .

20) "All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S."- President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933.

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