MARKET FLASH:

"It seems the donkey is laughing, but he instead is braying (l'asino sembra ridere ma in realtà raglia)": si veda sotto "1927-1933: Pompous Prognosticators" per avere la conferma che la storia non si ripete ma fà la rima.


giovedì 12 luglio 2018

China Has Been Preparing For A Trade War For Over A Decade


The crash of 2008 brought with it a host of strange economic paradigms rarely if ever seen in history; paradigms which have turned normal fiscal analysis on its head. While some core fundamentals remain the same no matter what occurs, the reporting of this data has been deliberately skewed to hide the truth. But what is the truth? Well, at bottom, the truth is that most economies around the world are far weaker than the picture governments and central banks have painted. This is especially true for the United States.

That said, one country has been pursuing an opposite strategy for many years now — meaning, it has been hiding its economic preparedness more than its weaknesses. I am of course speaking of China.

When we mention China in the world of alternative analysis, several issues always arise: China's expanding debt burden, government spending on seemingly useless infrastructure programs like "ghost cities," China's central bank and its corporate subset misreporting financial figures regularly, etc. All of these things fuel the notion that when a global fiscal disaster inevitably takes place, it will emanate first from China. They also give the American public the false impression that a trade war against China will be easily won and that China will immediately falter under the weight of its own veiled instabilities.

However, if one actually studies China's behavior and activities the past decade, they would see a method to the apparent madness. In fact, some of China's actions seem to suggest that the nation has been preparing for years for the exact geopolitical conditions we see today. It's as if someone warned them ahead of time...

In terms of prepping for a trade war with the U.S., China has implemented several important steps. For example, for at least the past 10 years the country has been shifting away from a pure export economy and reducing its reliance on sales of goods to the U.S. In 2018, Chinese consumer purchases of goods are expected to surpass that of American consumers. For the past five years, domestic consumption in China accounted for between 55% to 65% of economic growth, and private consumption was the primary driver of the Chinese economy — NOT exports.

The argument that China is somehow dependent on U.S. markets and consumers in order to keep its economy alive is simply a lie. China is now just as enticing a retail market as the U.S., and its domestic market can pick up some of the slack in the event that U.S. markets are suddenly closed to Chinese exports.

The problem of swiftly growing Chinese debt is presented often as the key argument against the nation surviving a global economic reset or trade war, with its "shadow banking" system threatening to unleash a long hidden credit crisis and stock market plunge. But this is not the complete story.

The exact amount of fiat printing that China's central bank undertook after the 2008 crash is not known. Some estimates calculate China's debt to now sit at around 250% of its gross domestic product. By normal standards this would suggest a credit crisis is imminent. But was China's sudden interest in debt expansion a reactionary matter, or was it part of a bigger plan?

Just after 2008, a common argument against China's resilience was the notion that China was dependent on holding U.S. dollar reserves in order to keep its own currency weak. Meaning, Chinese companies had to sell goods to the U.S. in exchange for dollars, which they then exchanged to the central bank for Yuan. China's central bank then held those trillions of dollars in reserve as a means to keep the dollar artificially stronger on the global market, and the Yuan weaker, thus supporting and perpetuating the old export model.

Obviously this argument is no longer applicable, or outright absurd.

China's own debt expansion and Treasury bond issuance actually started way back in 2005 under the "Panda Bond" program. At the time it was treated like a novelty or a joke by the mainstream economic community. Today, it is a powerhouse as Yuan denominated assets are spreading around the world.

China no longer needs to hold dollars or dollar denominated assets in order to keep its currency weaker for export markets. It can simply inflate and monetize its own debt, just like the U.S. does. But why would China bother to do this at all? Why jump into the same debt game that has caused so much trouble for western nations?

Perhaps because they know something we don't. During the initial phase of the derivatives crisis, the possibility of China joining the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights basket leaped to the forefront. With the Yuan as an SDR basket member, its potential to become a financial center for global trade rather than just an export and import hub would be assured. But the IMF set certain requirements before China could join.  One of these requirements was far greater currency liquidity and a more "freely usable" Yuan market. In other words, for China to join the SDR basket they would first need to go into considerable debt.

This is exactly what they did; not to prop up their banking system (though this made for a valid excuse) or to necessarily prop up their stock markets. Rather, China wanted a seat at the table of the "new world order," and they bought that seat through massive debt expansion. China was officially included in the SDR basket in 2016.

China has been a very vocal proponent of the SDR basket system, and it becomes clear why if you understand what the globalists intend for the future of the world's monetary framework. This plan was first outlined in the globalist controlled Economist magazine in 1988 in an article calling for the beginnings of a global currency in 2018. The article states that the U.S. economy and the role of the dollar as world reserve would have to be diminished, and that the IMF's Special Drawing Rights basket could be used as a bridge to set up a single currency for all the world's economies.

This currency would of course be administered and controlled by the banking elites at the IMF.

Since 2009, China's central bank has called for the SDR to become a "super-sovereign reserve currency," in other words, a global currency system. In 2017, the vice governor of China's central bank stated that central banks should increase their use of the SDR as a unit of account and that greater SDR liquidity should be encouraged. In 2015, China's central bank suggested that the SDR system should "go digital," creating a digital version of the reserve so that it could spread quickly.

It should come as no surprise that the IMF is in full agreement with this plan and has even suggested in recent articles on its website that cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology are the future evolution of the monetary system.

Notorious globalist George Soros revealed a few darker details of what the IMF calls the "global economic reset" in an interview in 2009; these details included a diminished American economy, a diminished dollar and for China to become a new economic engine for the world.

Finally, China has clearly been prepping for a considerable crisis in the dollar or in the world's economic stability as shown in its sudden and aggressive stockpiling of gold reserves the past decade. Only recently surpassed by Russia in purchases, China is one of the most aggressive national buyers of gold. An expanding gold stockpile would be an effective hedge against a collapsing dollar market. If the dollar loses its world reserve status, nations like China and Russia are placed well to mitigate the damages. Considering the fact that the IMF officially holds around 3,000 tons of gold, the globalists are also well placed for a dollar crash.

It would appear that China has been included at many levels in the plan for the global reset. All of the previously mentioned actions suggest foreknowledge of a dramatic shift in the dollar model. The trade war itself provides perfect cover for the economic reset, as I have been warning in my latest articles. China would play an important role in the reset, as they have the ability to dump U.S. Treasuries and the dollar as world reserve, causing a chain reaction through global markets as their trading partners follow along in a domino chain.

They will likely do this quietly (as Russia recently did), in order to pawn off their T-bond holdings before news of a Treasury dump hits the mainstream. The primary beneficiaries of this act will be the globalists, while China has placed itself to survive (not necessarily to thrive) during the chaos. The same cannot necessarily be said for the U.S., which suffers from the Achilles Heel of total dependency on the dollar's primacy.

Traders Now See Rate Cut More Likely Than Hike In 2020

While all eyes have been on the longer-end of the yield curve - as it collapses ever closer to recessionary-signaling inversion - traders have, for the first time since the financial crisis,inverted the eurodollar curve - implying a rate cut is more likely than a rate hike in 2020.

Most investors have grown used to watching the '2s10s' or '5s30s' curves which have collapsed in the face of an endless barrage of global synchronous growth 'goldilocks' bullshit narrative...

 

But, as Bloomberg notes, the spread between December 2019 and December 2020 eurodollar contracts fell below zero Wednesday for the first time, suggesting short-end traders don't expect the central bank to raise interest rates at all after next year.. and in fact, are pricing in a higher probability of a rate cut.

 

The spread's dip into negative territory is the culmination of a trend months in the making as investors bring forward their expectations for when America's economic expansion -- and therefore the Fed's tightening cycle -- will end.

It contrasts with the most recent summary of economic projections, which shows that a majority of officials expect to hike rates once or twice in 2020 as the gap between The Fed's hopes and The Market's reality has never been wider...

The divergence between trader and policy maker expectations is partly a product of contrasting views on whether productivity gains are set to drive further growth, according to TD Securities rates strategist Gennadiy Goldberg.

"The Fed expects productivity to pick up gradually in the coming years, raising the neutral rate," said Goldberg. "The market appears to be taking an 'I'll believe it when I see it' approach."

Finally, we reminder readers that as the short-end of the market inverts, suggesting the end of the tightening cycle is appreciably sooner than The Fed 'no recession in sight' hopes would assume, bond speculators are still convinced that higher rates are coming and have never been more bearish of bonds...

 

Maybe Dr.Copper is on to something after all...

The Eurodollar curve is shouting loud that a recessionary impulse is coming soon and The Fed will have to admit it failed again.

Dear Fed, the PACE of QT is the Problem… Signed, Dr. Copper

The markets are now screaming at the Fed that it needs to "back off."

Copper is widely called "Dr. Copper" due to its close association with economic growth. With that in mind, take a look at the chart below.

First and foremost, we see that Copper entered a "growth" period in November 2016. From this point until recently 2017, Copper maintained in an uptrend.

That uptrend has now ended.

This is a MAJOR warning that Copper is sensing something is VERY wrong with global growth.

Secondly, we see that Copper actually began to flatline in October 2017… which incidentally is when the Fed launched its QT program. We also see that since the Fed started this program, Copper has struggled to move higher (red box). And once QT was increased to $30 billion per month in April 2018, Copper began to trend lower.

This suggests that the Fed's QT program is in fact having a direct impact on global growth.  That suspicion is confirmed by the fact that Copper has gone STRAIGHT DOWN since the Fed announced it would hike interest rates another FIVE times in the next 18 months while also increasing its QT program to $40 billion per month.

Since the Fed made that announcement, Copper has dropped 14% without so much as a bounce.

Put simply, Copper is SCREAMING, "the Fed screwed up." Not only has it taken out its bull market trendline from November 2016, but it is now collapsing without even a meaningful bounce.

ALL of this can be 100% laid at the Fed's feet. Copper is sending clear signals that global growth is slowing down… but the Fed has determined to actually ACCELERATE the pace of its QT program.

By the way, stocks tend to follow Copper. And based on this recent collapse in the metal, the S&P 500 could EASILY drop to 2,500.

JPMorgan CEO Dimon issues stark warning about 'catastrophic' events if Italy leaves the euro

Getty/Win McNamee
  • JPMorgan boss Dimon warns of "catastrophic events" if Italy attempts to leave the eurozone.
  • "Because of the way it has been designed, the European Monetary Union would be hard to reverse without causing catastrophic events," Dimon told Italian paper Il Sole 24 Ore.
  • Dimon also warned about Brexit, saying it "could turn out to be tough for the British people."


JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon has warned Italy's populist government of the likely "catastrophic" consequences that would come from attempts to pull the country out of the eurozone.

Speaking to Italian newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore, Dimon said that because of the structure of the European Monetary Union — the formal name for the project to converge monetary policy of the eurozone — pulling out would not only be immensely difficult, but also immensely dangerous for the stability of the global financial system.

"Because of the way it has been designed, the European Monetary Union would be hard to reverse without causing catastrophic events," Dimon told the paper.

"This does not mean that Europe should not fix itself; there are many regulatory issues that remain to be solved, and the fact that Brexit happened should make the dialogue between European countries easier."

Dimon's comments come as Italy's populist coalition government, comprised of the Lega Nord and Five Star Movement, repeatedly publicly mentioning pulling out of the euro in the lead up to the creation of that government.

Official policy is that the government backs remaining in the European Union, but Matteo Salvini, the Lega Nord's leader, is an avowed eurosceptic, and is believed to privately back an exit.

In May, a leaked report, published in part by the Huffington Post, showed that both the parties discussed a commitment to leave the euro prior to entering into government, before abandoning that pledge.

Whether or not the parties push for an exit from the euro, the fact that such a proposal almost formed a part of their plan for government marked a huge moment for the eurozone.

Italy is one of the three most crucial members of the eurozone project, alongside France and Germany. Italy is the third biggest economy in the group and the largest in southern Europe. If Italy were to make attempts to withdraw from the EMU, it would undoubtedly be a huge market event.

Elsewhere in his interview with Il Sole 24 Ore, Dimon also warned that Brexit "could turn out to be tough for the British people."

"I think Brexit could turn out to be tough for the British people because of its impact on British growth: if there is going to be less growth in the UK, this will have an impact on global growth, and so Brexit could hurt everybody a bit."

Canada’s Housing Market- Ready to implode!

Despite what the mortgage companies and loan-sharks tell you: All's NOT hunky-dory with the Canadian real estate scene. Even the government, at all levels – Federal, Provincial, Municipal – are trying desperately to put on a brave face on the impending market correction. However, the numbers never lie.

Here's why many analysts believe that Canada is heading for a housing bubble crash that could be much bigger than what our neighbours to the South experienced in 2008-09!

Facts and figures

When Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) pushed out its Housing Affordability indicators for Q4-2017a short while ago, it indicated that there was some improvement in the average Canadian's ability to afford a home. This was the first good news in over two years. RBC's Canada-wide affordability indicator stood at 48.3% in Q4 2017, compared to an average of 39.4% since 1985.

So, what do these facts and figures mean? Well, in simple terms: Higher is bad. Lower is good!

48.3% means that, for the average Canadian household, 48.3% of their household budget will be consumed on home ownership spending. That includes utilities, property taxes (not to mention HST/GST and other taxes) and yes – especially mortgages! Back in 1985, only 39.4% of a household's income went towards affording a home. To put things in perspective then, Canadian's spend 48.3 cents, on the average, out of every dollar they earn on housing affordability.

Posing a rhetorical question: "Are we at a turning point for affordability?", the RBC report offers us this gloomy outlook for Canada's real estate market:

"No... Rising interest rates will put upward pressure on home ownership costs, and recent policy measures are more likely to reduce household and market risks than provide material affordability relief"

In case readers didn't catch that bit about "affordability measures", RBC was referring to a slew of measures various levels of government have put in place since late 2017-early 2018, to try and curb the ever-ballooning housing crisis. These measures include Non-Resident taxes, Renter protection steps, and legislative moves to increase housing supply. There have even been Federal government pledges of $5B to help housing affordability.

Well, it appears that the facts and figures crunched by RBC confirm what many analysts suspect: All those "measures" won't do much to forestall an impending housing market crash in Canada!

More bad news

In case you might think RBC has a hidden agenda (whatever it might be!) to sound gloomy on Canada's housing market – think again! There's more bad news in the cards for Canada's real estate sector, and this time it's a competitor of RBC putting it out.

National Bank of Canada (NBC), in its Q1 2018 housing affordability report, confirms the conclusions arrived at by RBC. But the NBC report sheds more gloomy light on what's to come. According to NBC, Canada's housing affordability situation further deteriorated in Q1 2018, with mortgage payments on the average home increasing by 1.2 points. According to NBC analysts, this bad news story has continued to get worse over the past 11 quarters.

And, if we read the report correctly, affordability challenges could have a deleterious knock-on effect on the broader housing market:

"Since buyers can hardly lay out a higher share of their income on housing…, a decline of prices is conceivable over the next few quarters if rates rise as we expect."

 

Not so hidden in the report, was a dire warning that as bad as things are today – on the affordability front – it is likely to get worse when (not IF!) the Bank of Canada (BoC) increases its benchmark rate. The bad news for existing mortgage holders and prospective homebuyers is:

  • You are currently spending nearly half of your pay check trying to afford your home
  • When the BoC raises its overnight lending rate, your mortgage holder will likely follow suit
  • You'll then need to divert more of your pay check towards housing affordability
  • If you can't afford to pay that mortgage, you may have to borrow more money (at higher interest rates!) to make those payments
  • And…if you can't borrow more, you'll likely lose your home!

Whichever way you interpret each of these (RBC and NBC) reports, the messages are clear: What's to come in the next few quarters will likely dwarf the 2008-2009 financial crisis by a huge scale. That's because this isn't just a matter of rising mortgage rates – it's broader than that.

The big ugly picture

Canada is facing an unprecedented increase in household debt. Every time there is a policy statement by the BoC, one red flag that is continually waved is household debt levels, and the devastation that could wreak on Canada's economy in a rising interest environment.

According to the Canadian Banker's Association (CBA), almost 69% of that debt represents residential mortgages. So, if we were to step back a bit and consider what would happen if even half of Canadian's (owing a mortgage) were to default? It would spell disaster! Why? Because most Canadian's would likely be forced into bankruptcy!

According to one report, more than half of our population can barely afford a spike of more than $200 in monthly expenditure, before they are unable to pay their bills. So, what could a small increase in interest rates – say one percent over the next year or so – do? It could be manageable – right? Not really!

The big ugly truth is that a 1% spike in interest rates is estimated to translate into $130 per month additional in Canadian debt-servicing costs. And that would mean that the average Canadian has just $70 worth of wiggle-room in their budget, before they throw in the proverbial financial towel. And all because they will not be able to afford their mortgage or service other non-mortgage debt.

Plain speak

To put things plainly, most lenders and politicians have a vested interest in skewing the facts towards supporting a housing recovery story. However, if you read between the lines of every impartial analysis, you'll come to a dire conclusion that the government and mortgage companies are trying to hide:

Canada is headed for a huge housing bubble implosion – and it could be a nasty one!