MARKET FLASH:

"It seems the donkey is laughing, but he instead is braying (l'asino sembra ridere ma in realtà raglia)": si veda sotto "1927-1933: Pompous Prognosticators" per avere la conferma che la storia non si ripete ma fà la rima.


martedì 3 aprile 2018

Central Bank Money Rules the World

Central bank credit that supports markets — is not just creation of the Fed, but by central banks and institutions around the world colluding together. Global markets are too deeply connected these days to consider the Fed in isolation.

Since last month's correction, the world has been watching the Fed because its policies have global implications. And worldwide sell-offs sent a clear sign to Fed Chair Powell to relax with the rate hikes.

When fears arise that central bank QE will recede on one side of the world, we see more volatility and rumors of hawkishness. To counter those fears, there will be a move toward dovish policy on the other side of the world.

Central banks operate in collusion. When the Fed signals it is raising rates, or markets over-react negatively to the threat, another central bank steps in. By colluding, other central banks offer even more dark money-QE to keep the party going.

The net result is a propensity toward the status quo in global monetary policy: a bullish, asset bubble-inflating bias in the stock markets and caution in the bond markets.

Here's what's going on with some of the most powerful central bankers right now, starting with Japan…

While U.S. markets were correcting earlier this month, Japan's financial benchmark, the Nikkei 225 index fell more than 1,200 points. At the same time, the rumors of Japan's central bank curbing its dark money-QE programs are just that.

While investors have speculated that the BoJ could be moving towards an exit from dark money policy (despite the BOJ denying this), we know that central banks are too scared of the outcomes.

In an economic pinch, the Bank of Japan (BoJ), will keep dark money flowing.

Confirming my premise, when Japanese Government Bond prices were dipping too fast, the BoJ announced "unlimited" buying of long-term Japanese government bonds. This is simply the continuation of the policy the BoJ already has in place.

It was also, as CNBC reported, "the first time in more than six months that the BOJ has conducted special operations to buy bonds to achieve the yields it wants to see…"

That's a clear sign of more manipulation of the bond market. And now we have confirmation that Japan likely has more dark money coming…

For the past year, there have been media rumblings that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe would relieve current Bank of Japan (BoJ) head, Haruhiko Kuroda. The dark money maven was set to end his term on April 8.

Seeing through the media craze, I have repeatedly detailed that it would not be the case. Abe and Kuroda go together like peanut butter and jelly. Abe specifically chose Kuroda to implement a massive dark money strategy in what has been referred to as a monetary "bazooka."

A piece in Japan Today confirms this view. It concludes that 73-year-old Kuroda will stick around for a second five-year term, through 2023. So as the article notes, "He would be the first BoJ governor to serve two terms in half a century."

Kuroda has implemented the most aggressive dark money manufacturing on the planet since taking the helm of the BOJ in 2013. Prime Minister Abe has become the longest-standing Japanese prime minister in years with the success of the snap elections he called for last fall.

Logically, why would he seek to end a partnership that is lifting the Japanese markets and making its economy appear rosy? (Though as in the U.S., wage growth and consumption remain tepid.)

With core inflation rising just 0.5% last year, well below Kuroda's 2% target, you should expect that he'll be pumping even more dark money into Japanese markets. For investors that means more opportunities in Japanese stocks. Currently, I'm focused on sectors related to the 2020 Olympics and the infrastructure projects that come with it.

Japan offers us a clear roadmap. Financial markets in Japan are clearly addicted to dark money.

Nessun commento:

Posta un commento