MARKET FLASH:

"It seems the donkey is laughing, but he instead is braying (l'asino sembra ridere ma in realtà raglia)": si veda sotto "1927-1933: Pompous Prognosticators" per avere la conferma che la storia non si ripete ma fà la rima.


venerdì 12 gennaio 2018

Inflation Watch: Yields Have Now Broken a 20-Year Trendline

If you want to make money investing, you first need to understand the structure of the asset classes in our current financial system,

Everyone likes to go bonkers over stocks, but the reality is that the stock market is in fact one of the smallest and least liquid markets on the planet. All told, US stocks are roughly $26 trillion in market cap.

By way of contrast, the US debt markets (Treasuries, corporate, municipal, local, etc.) is well north of $60 trillion.

And the currency markets (which cannot be accurately measured because every trade involves a currency pair) trades over $5 trillion per day.

Put simply, currencies are the "smartest" money, followed by bonds, and then finally stocks. So when a seismic change takes place, currencies and bonds pick up on it LONG before stocks do.

With that in mind consider that the $USD is collapsing, having gone almost straight down for 12 months.


Now consider that the US Treasury bond market, is falling in price, resulting in yields spiking above their 20-year downtrend.


BOTH of these assets are forecasting the same thing: INFLATION.

Inflation forces the $USD DOWN and bond yields UP.

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