Why The Globalists Need A War, And Soon

It is difficult to gauge and understand geopolitical and economic events without first comprehending the fact that much of what happens in the world is engineered to happen and with a specific encompassing goal in mind. If you subscribe to the theory that all is random "chaos" and outcomes are circumstantial or coincidental, then you will be lost in the dark on most things. If you think a globalist "conspiracy" would require "too much control" or foresight, I would point out that organized conspiracy by people in power is a matter of history, not of theory. If such cabals were prevalent in the past, it is rather foolish to dismiss the reality that they are prevalent today.



There is considerable evidence supporting the following conclusion: International financiers and political puppets in Western AND Eastern countries share a deep rooted ideology called "globalism" or the "new world order." This ideology demands total centralization of economy and government resulting in a single global fiscal authority, a single global monetary system and a one world ruling structure. Obviously, such a pursuit would take extensive time and planning. It is a long term project, with moments of accelerated change.


The globalists refer to the process of their intended change as the "global economic reset." A reset of the world's economic processes is not so far fetched as skeptics like to argue. When an organized group of ideologues maintains control over the currency production and interest rates of most nations on the planet, it would hardly be difficult to manipulate politicians, manipulate legislation or even scientifically conjure financial bubbles and collapses. By extension, it would also be simple to trigger international conflicts if needed.


But why would war be a necessary ingredient to globalization?


War is the ultimate distraction, the ultimate divider and, perhaps ironically, the ultimate consolidator. In the past century, war always seems to follow or coincide with economic crisis events that are later exposed as products of the banking elites and their aggressive monetary policies. And, in the aftermath of these wars, supranational institutions are often founded (like the League of Nations, the United Nations, the Bank for International Settlements and the International Monetary Fund) as "solutions" to preventing mass tragedies from ever happening again. War is a social steroid promoting mutation, usually in an unhealthy way.


In recent years the concept of "world war" has given way to a more insidious trend of constant and sporadic regional wars. In most cases these regional wars have helped to contribute to the steady downfall of the U.S. through accumulating national debts as well as international distrust or hatred. In fact, one might conclude that if we were to look at the macro-picture of the vast array of regional wars being perpetrated by the globalists we would see that all of them combined are amounting to a kind of world war in a different form.


That said, the globalists will need a new and far larger catalyst for their reset, and soon. Why? Because a sizable distraction is essential to the next phase of the ongoing collapse. A pervasive scapegoat is needed; one that can be blamed for almost any negative scenario. This draws public attention away from the globalists themselves as the culprits behind fiscal crisis, maybe so much so that it will take decades before the mainstream ever questions what actually happened, if they ever question anything at all.


The fear generated through an uncertain war also acts as a form of psychological alchemy, transmuting the collective public mindset to accept centralization they never would have accepted otherwise.


Here is the issue at hand — central banks are seeking a monetary reset more than anything else. A monetary reset demands massive debt, followed by massive stimulus, followed by fiscal tightening, then massive inflation, followed by currency implosion that opens the door to a replacement structure (most likely in the form of blockchain technology and cyrptocurrency). The credit crisis of 2008 conveniently provided at least two of these elements so far, vast debt and stimulus measures. Today, we are beginning to witness the fiscal tightening phase of this process.


As I have been warning since before the Fed taper of QE, the central bank trend will lead to aremoval of stimulus support, facilitating a crushing blow to bonds and equities markets. Now, interestingly enough, the Bank for International Settlements is warning of the same thing as 2017 comes to a close. It should be noted that this is not the first time the BIS warned of an impending crash; they also predicted with keen timing the derivatives and credit crash back in 2007. This was, of course, too little too late for the masses to react in any positive way, though.


Their latest warning arrives on the heels of the December Federal Reserve meeting at which it is widely expected that the central bank will raise interest rates yet again while taking the next step towards reducing their balance sheet. Many mainstream and alternative economists doubted the taper of QE and doubted the hiking of interest rates. They were wrong. Just as the doubts over the Fed balance sheet reductions are wrong. The pullback in these measures will invariably strike bonds and equities in a negative way. Time is running out.


But, the banking elites have taken steps. For example, they have in place a perfect distraction in the form of the Trump Administration. With Trump loudly and proudly taking credit for the stock market bull run over the course of the past year, who do you think the public will blame when those same markets go south as the central bank pulls the rug out? Probably not the Fed or the establishment banks.


Trump has also in an odd way created the perfect rationale for the Fed as they increase interest rates and end the cheap money that has been feeding stocks for so long. With the passage of Trump's tax "reform" plan, the fed can now argue that interest rates MUST be raised in order to create incentives for treasury investment and to pay for Trump's intended public works programs and military expansion goals. Meaning, the fed can claim it is not culpable for any negative effects from removing cheap capital from the table because Trump's actions demanded it.


I would also point out that in most cases in history the Fed has lowered interest rates immediately following tax cuts and reforms. They did this after Reagan's tax reforms in 1981 and in 1986, as well as after George W. Bush's tax reforms in 2001. Juxtapose that with 2018, as the Fed intends to continue RAISING interest rates in the wake of Trump's tax reforms. Meaning, they are taking the opposite action from what they have often done in the past. Something to think about...


Trump's tax plan itself is primarily a distraction from the real problem. First, when comparing tax brackets from this past year to the intended tax brackets for next year under the Trump reforms, there is almost no change whatsoever for the average American. The only major reductions in taxes are, no surprise, in the form of corporate tax cuts; reducing the corporate tax ceiling from 35 percent to 20 percent. This is trickle-down economics at best, and not a solution to a single problem facing the public and the country in terms of the flailing economy.


Second, why are we talking about income tax "reform" when we should be talking about abolishing the income tax and the Federal Reserve altogether? Whatever happened to that dialogue? It has disappeared down the memory hole.


Trump's tax plan will do nothing to slow or undo the current economic crisis because the crisis stems directly from central banking monetary policies and interest rate manipulations. Tax reform is far too little far too late, and stands as nothing more than meager bone thrown to conservatives to keep them quiet for a while. This is what Trump's tax reform does do very well, though — it rallies conservatives around Trump, regardless of whether it actually helps them or not. Much like Obama's universal health care bill, which has proven to be a continued disaster in practice, but was rather successful at the time of its passage in rallying the liberal base. Trump is certainly going to need a base of public support if he is going to initiate a major war campaign.


North Korea continues to be the most likely powder keg for the next distraction event. Two months of quiet led people with short attention spans to dismiss the notion, and perhaps some of them will double down and continue their denials, but it is growing more difficult to ignore by the day. I would argue that North Korea is the most viable option simply because almost no one expects a war with the isolated nation to happen. The level of complacency despite all the signals to the contrary is palpable.


The U.S. has staged three aircraft carrier groups in the region for the first time in a decade. Major combat exercises are underway, designated Vigilant Ace 18, specifically designed to simulate an invasion of North Korea with over 230 aircraft and 12,000 American troops participating. North Korea has warned of "nuclear war" as a consequence.


North Korea may have the ability to follow through, at least on a limited scale, as they have recently test launched what appears to be a huge leap in missile technology — an ICBM capable of carrying multiple warheads and striking the Eastern seaboard of the U.S. How the North Koreans came to possess this technology so quickly is a question everyone should be asking.


In response, the war rhetoric has been amplified. White House National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster has stated that North Korea is the greatest immediate threat to the U.S., saying that the potential for war "is increasing every day." Warmonger and enemy of the Constitution, Lindsay Graham, has stated that the families of U.S. military personnel should be moved out of South Korea for their own safety, and that "We're getting close to military conflict."


So how close is close? I maintain that war with North Korea is likely by the second quarter of 2018. I also maintain the globalists will continue the strategy of multiple regional conflicts and global economic warfare rather than a one-off global nuclear mess that would wipe out trillions of dollars and decades of effort put into infrastructure and surveillance grids.


This would be advantageous to the globalists if they plan to continue interest rate hikes and stimulus removal by central banks around the world. It would help hide the effects of balance sheet reductions on stocks and it could expedite the fall of the dollar as the world reserve as Eastern and European nations apply alternatives like the IMF's SDR basket system in response to the massive debt brought on by a military quagmire for the U.S. In other words, catastrophic fiscal developments that were already going to happen anyway due to central bank sabotage will be entirely blamed on geopolitical crisis rather than the true culprits.


Finally, will the East step in militarily to prevent a conflict in North Korea? No. China has already stated that if North Korea attacks first, then they will not obstruct regime change by the U.S.


This flies in the face of those that believe in the false east/west paradigm. China has left the door wide open to potential conflict. If the globalists want a war in North Korea, they will create a war in North Korea, and the Chinese have publicly admitted they will step out of the way to let it happen. A false flag is probable. More provocations leading to a violent response by North Korea would also be rather easy to produce. So far, North Korea remains the best existing shock and awe event to hide a globally disintegrating economic situation. Would the globalists pass up an opportunity like this? There is no reason for them to do so.

The Strange Case Of The Falling Dollar – And What It Means For Gold

Trillions of dollars in uncontrolled central bank stimulus and years of artificially low interest rates have poisoned every aspect of our financial system. Nothing functions as it used to. In fact, many markets actually move in the exact opposite manner as they did before the debt crisis began in 2008. The most obvious example has been stocks, which have enjoyed the most historic bull market ever despite all fundamental data being contrary to a healthy economy.

With a so far endless supply of cheap fiat from the Federal Reserve (among other central banks), as well as near zero interest overnight loans, everyone in the economic world was wondering where all the cash was flowing to. It certainly wasn't going into the pockets of the average citizen. Instead, we find that the real benefactors of central bank support has been the already mega-rich as the wealth gap widens beyond all reason. Furthermore, it is clear that central bank stimulus is the primary culprit behind the magical equities rally that SEEMS to be invincible.

To illustrate this correlation, one can compare the rise of the Fed's balance sheet to the rise of the S&P 500 and see they match up almost exactly. Coincidence? I think not…

Another strangely behaving market factor that has gone mostly unnoticed has been the Dollar index (DXY). Beginning after the global financial crisis in 2008, the dollar's value in reference to other foreign currencies initially moved in a rather predictable manner; collapsing in the face of unprecedented bailout and stimulus programs by the Fed, which required unlimited fiat creation from thin air. Naturally, commodities responded to fill the void in wealth protection and exploded in price. Oil markets in particular, which are priced only in the US dollar (something that is quickly changing today), nearly quadrupled. Gold witnessed a historic run, edging toward $2,000.

In the past few years, central banks have initiated a coordinated tightening policy, first by tapering QE, then raising interest rates, and now by decreasing their balance sheets. I would note that while oil and many other commodities plummeted in relative value to the dollar after tightening measures, gold has actually maintained a strong market presence, and has remained one of the best performing investments in recent years.

Something rather odd, however, has been happening with the dollar…

Normally, Fed tightening policies should cause an ever-increasing boost to the dollar index. Instead, the dollar is facing a swift plunge not seen since 2003.

What is going on here? Well, there are a number of factors at play. First, we have a growing international sentiment against US treasury bonds (debt), which may be affecting overall demand for the dollar, and in turn, dollar value. For example, one can see a relatively steady decline in US treasury holdings by Japan and China over the course of 2016, with China being the most aggressive in its move away from US debt:

We also have a subtle, yet increasing, international appetite for an alternative world reserve currency. The dollar has enjoyed decades of protection from the effects of fiat printing as the world reserve, but numerous countries including Russia, China, and Saudi Arabia are moving to bilateral trade agreements which cut out the US dollar as a mechanism. This will eventually trigger an avalanche of dollars flooding into the US from overseas, as they are no longer needed to execute cross-border trade. And, in turn the dollar will continue to fall in relative value to other currencies.

There is also the issue of coordinated fiscal tightening by central banks around the world, with the ECB and even Japan moving to cut off stimulus measures and QE. What this means is, other currencies will now be appreciating in terms of Forex market value against the dollar, and in turn, the dollar index will decline further. Unless the Federal Reserve acts more aggressively in its interest rate hikes, the dollar's decline will be brutal.

Finally, we also have the issue of nearly a decade of Fed stimulus that has gone without audit (except for the limited TARP audit, which shows tens of trillions in money/debt creation). We truly have no idea how much fiat was actually created by the Fed – but we can guess that it was a massive sum according to the seemingly endless rise in equities from a point of near total breakdown, funded by quantitative easing and stock buybacks. You cannot conjure a market rebound merely with debt. Eventually, that currency creation and the consequences will have to set a foot down somewhere, and it is possible that we are witnessing the results first in the dollar, as well as the Treasury yield curve, which is now flattening faster than it did just before the stock market crash in 2008.

A flat yield curve is generally a portent of economic recession.

I believe that this is just the beginning of troubles for the dollar and for US bonds. Which raises the question, how will the Fed react to a dollar market that is so far completely ignoring their tightening policies?

Here is where things get interesting. Throughout 2017, I warned that the Fed would continue to raise interest rates (despite many people arguing to the contrary) and would eventually find an excuse to increase rates much faster than previously stated in their dot plots. I based this prediction on the fact that the Fed is clearly moving to pop the enormous fiscal bubble it has engineered since 2008, and that they plan do this while Donald Trump is in office (whether or not Trump is aware of this plan is hard to say). Trump has already taken credit on several occasions for the epic stock rally, and thus, when the plug is pulled on equities life support, who do you think will get the blame? Definitely not the banking elites who inflated the bubble in the first place.

Even the mainstream financial media has admitted at times that Trump will "regret" his campaign demands that the Fed hike rates and stop pumping up stock markets, as he will be inheriting a fiscal punch in the gut.

The Fed, as well as the mainstream, have also planted the notion that the Fed "will be forced" to raise interest rates faster if the Trump Administration pursues its plans for Hoover-style infrastructure development.

But, on top of this, the "problem" of the falling dollar also introduces a whole new rationale for speedy interest rate hikes. I believe that soon after Janet Yellen leaves as Fed chair and Jerome Powell transitions in, the Fed will begin an exponential increase in rates and will speed up their balance sheet reductions. And, they will blame the unusual decline in the dollar index as well as falling Treasury demand as the cause for more extreme action.

Powell has already backed "gradual rate hikes" in 2018, and, a few members of the Fed expressed a need for "faster hikes" in the minutes of the last meeting in December. I predict this sentiment will expand under Powell.

A small number of Wall Street economists are also warning of more rate hikes in 2018, and that this could cause considerable shock to the virtual stock rally in play right now.

That might be the Fed's plan. The central bankers need a scapegoat for the eventual bursting of the market bubble that they have produced. Why not simply allow that bubble to finally implode in the near term, blaming the Trump administration and, by extension, all the conservatives that supported him? To do this, the Fed needs an excuse to hike rates swiftly; and they now have that excuse with the dollar dropping like a stone (among other reasons).

But how will this affect gold?

So far, gold has actually spiked along with Fed rate increases, which might seem counter intuitive, but so is the dollar falling along with rate increases. I do think that there will be an initial and marginal drop in gold prices if the Fed increases the frequency of rate hakes. That said, eventually reality will set into stock markets that the party is over, the punch bowl is being taken away, and Trump's tax reform will not be enough to offset the loss of access to trillions in cheap fiat dollars from the central bank.

Once stocks begin to collapse in the wake of Fed hikes and balance sheet reductions (and they will), and uncertainty in the fate of the dollar swells, gold will bounce back stronger than ever. In the meantime, I would treat any drop in precious metals as a major buying opportunity. Gold is one of the few assets that always does well during times of crisis.

The American System Is Not Capitalism

One of the great myths of our time is that America is a capitalistic country. It is not, and has not been close to capitalistic for more than 150 years.

Capitalism is a social system in which an individual's rights, including his rights to own property, are recognized and all property is privately owned. In a capitalistic society, governments acknowledge that individuals and companies can and should compete for their own economic gain, and the prices of goods and services are determined by the free market. The role of government in capitalistic societies is to ensure that markets function without interference and to protect individuals from fraud and/or the use of physical force by others.

Capitalism is not about greed. Capitalism is about human freedom, or as we term it, personal liberty. As Adam Smith posited in Wealth of Nations, when individuals are permitted to pursue their self-interest through markets, they are amazingly good at finding ways of bettering not only themselves but society as well.

In Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal, Ayn Rand writes:

The recognition of individual rights entails the banishment of physical force from human relationships: basically, rights can be violated only by means of force. In a capitalist society, no man or group may initiate the use of physical force against others. The only function of the government, in such a society, is the task of protecting man's rights, i.e., the task of protecting him from physical force; the government acts as the agent of man's right of self-defense, and may use force only in retaliation and only against those who initiate its use; thus the government is the means of placing the retaliatory use of force under objective control... In a capitalist society, all human relationships are voluntary. Men are free to cooperate or not, to deal with one another or not, as their own individual judgments, convictions, and interests dictate. They can deal with one another only in terms of and by means of reason, i.e., by means of discussion, persuasion, and contractual agreement, by voluntary choice to mutual benefit. The right to agree with others is not a problem in any society; it is the right to disagree that is crucial. It is the institution of private property that protects and implements the right to disagree — and thus keeps the road open to man's most valuable attribute (valuable personally, socially, and objectively): the creative mind.


Americans no longer have property rights. Think you do? Try going a year or two without paying tribute to the king (via property taxes) and you'll see who owns your property. The local sheriff will evict you; the state or local government will seize your property and sell it to the highest bidder or its favorite crony.


Try building a structure on your property... or even remodeling your home. If you don't obtain the proper permissions (approval for your design, building permits and inspections), you will be fined and forced to tear your structure down. Failure to do so will result in armed agents of the government invading your property, assaulting and incarcerating you until you comply with the government's demands.


Try damming a creek, tampering with the watershed or capturing water for a pond on your property. You will get a visit from federal agents representing the Environmental Protection Agency and the result will be fines, expensive court costs and possible visits by armed federal agents who will forcibly escort you off your property and into a prison cell.


Try growing livestock or certain plants on your property. Unless you live in an area zoned for agriculture, you will likely get a visit from a local or federal "inspector" who will order you to dispose of your animals and/or uproot your plants in favor of others approved by the local authorities.


Try selling a product you grew or made. You will be forced to comply with regulations regarding harvesting, production, packaging and distribution. You will be forced to act as agent of government and collect government tribute (taxes) which you must then pass along to government — regardless of the time and effort required to comply. Failure to do so will result in fines and/or imprisonment.


Want to inform people about and sell a protocol that experience and use has shown to be beneficial to good health? You must first obtain permission from local and federal agencies, provide proof that your protocol has been tested, tested and retested, regardless of the expense or inconvenience to you. You must then comply with any and all regulations regarding marketing, production, packaging and distribution. Failure to do so will result in seizure of assets, fines and/or imprisonment.


Want to not sell your product for a reason — or no reason at all — not approved by the establishment? That is not allowed and you will find your business shuttered and you will be subject to fines and revocation of your previously-acquired permission to conduct business.


The establishment will tell you that once enter into business you have surrendered your individual rights to the collective, and all your activities must be geared toward the collective good. This is the very definition of force — government force, which is anathema to voluntary exchange and individual liberty.


The federal government works overtime to ensure we are not a capitalist system by passing legislation and enabling federal alphabet soup regulatory agencies to create rules favorable to certain businesses and unfavorable to others. Congressweasels pass tax laws to encourage and discourage behaviors.


The federal government subsidizes certain products, driving up prices and encouraging unsound business practices that skew the market. There are still price controls on food products that were put in place during the Great Depression.


The Federal Reserve, which is not a federal agency but a privately-owned bank, prints money to infinity, which encourages mal-investment and skews the market. It is depreciating your currency.


Here is what has happened to the American people: The money creators, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury as symbiotic partners, are creating non-substance (fiat money) and "buying" (stealing) substance with it.


Has anyone wondered why "federal money" never gives out? As admitted in congressional testimony and in Federal Reserve publications, the federal money creators can create any amount of "money." Of course this money is non-substance fiat. It is imaginary numbers that appear either on green pieces of paper called dollars or as computer symbols.


The key word to describe fiat non-substance is infinity. This imaginary money system can be created to infinity and indeed is on its way. The American people (and the world) believe that this non-substance is real money. This is an exercise in an unbelievable and unimaginable delusion that is accepted by the mind as real.


This is socialism at its most perfect creation and it is doing exactly socialism's work of transferring the wealth and savings of the American people to the state without payment.


Every writer, commentator politician in America refers to the U.S. as a democracy of free enterprise capitalism with individual privacy and property rights. We live in a fiction of freedom perpetuated with semantic corruption that has evolved us into economic fascism. Language and words that support a free society have been turned inside out.


The American economic system, and in fact the world's economic system is failing, and that failure is being attributed by many on the left (and some on the right) as a failure of capitalism. This is a big laugh to any sober person.


All governments are fronts for monopoly capitalism, and monopoly capitalism has many names: fascism, socialism, communism and democracy. Big business has and will promote every ideology and philosophy known to man to disguise its madness for profits. But one equals the other. They are all immoral systems that use the power of government to exist and to suppress human freedom.


Capitalism is the only moral system. It was American free market capitalism that fueled the growth of the U.S. economic engine beginning in the 1800s and raised the standard of living around the globe, before monopoly capitalism began to exert greater and greater control over the U.S. economic system beginning in the mid-1800s and accelerated after the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913.


The extraordinary level of material prosperity achieved by the capitalist system over the course of the last 200 years is a matter of historical record. But very few people are willing to defend capitalism as morally uplifting.


Sadly, it's not just the progressive left and ignorant millennials that oppose free market capitalism. In any discussion forum where true or laissez-faire capitalism is discussed, "conservatives" are quick to make the disclaimer that "we must have some regulation" or, "we can't have unfettered capitalism." In truth, most so-called conservatives are really closet socialists. This is a testament to the powerful propaganda we are subjected to.


Throughout history there have been two basic forms of social organization: collectivism and individualism. In the 20th century, collectivism has taken many forms: socialism, fascism, Nazism, welfare-statism and communism are its more notable variations. The only social system commensurate with individualism is laissez-faire capitalism.


The return of capitalism will not happen until there is a moral revolution in this country. We must rediscover and then teach our young the virtues associated with being free and independent citizens. Then and only then, will there be social justice in America.

Olympic Games In South Korea - Perfect Opportunity For A False Flag Attack?

The war rhetoric surrounding North Korea on both sides of the Pacific has never been more aggressive than it has been the past year (at least not since the Korean War). There are some people that see the entire affair as a "distraction," a distraction that will never amount to actual conflict. I disagree with this sentiment for a number of reasons.

North Korea is indeed a distraction, but still a distraction in the making. That is to say, the chest beating and saber rattling are merely a prelude to the much more effective distraction of live combat and invasion in the name of regime change and "national security.". The extensive staging of military assets to the region that has not been seen in over a decade, the extremely swift advancement of North Korean missile technology to include ICBMs capable of reaching the mainland U.S., the strange and unprecedented language by China indicating that they will not intercede against an invasion of North Korea by the U.S. "if Pyongyang attacks first...." All of this and more shows a clear movement of chess pieces into place for a sudden action.

According to these factors, I am led to believe that a false flag event blamed on North Korea, or a prodding of North Korea into taking an attack posture, is likely. The purposes behind such a war would be many-fold. Primarily, the final implosion of the vast financial bubbles created by central bank stimulus measures could be undertaken while the banks themselves escape public blame or prosecution.

A geopolitical crisis large enough would provide a perfect scapegoat for an economic crisis that was going to develop eventually anyway. And, if this geopolitical crisis were initiated by a "rogue state," along with the poor decisions of a conservative "populist" president (Trump), then the historical narrative would be complete. Future generations would talk about the "great blunder" of sovereign states and nationalists and how hubris and greed and ego led to a global fiscal disaster and unnecessary destruction. The rationale for a one world governmental authority would be planted in the minds of the populace.

Will a war in North Korea be the trigger event for this narrative? It's hard to say, as there are so many potential geopolitical powder kegs around the world. However, ample assets to initiate this kind of event are present around North Korea. And, unlike hot spots like Syria and Iran, North Korea offers the most immediate and tangible threat in the minds of many people with its nuclear arsenal.

The pure panic and mindless reactionary thinking that can be provoked in the unprepared when the danger of nukes is present is quite powerful. This could not have been made more clear than this past week when an "accidental" warning of a live ICBM launch occurred in Hawaii.

The Hawaii Emergency Management Agency now claims that this false alarm was started by a single employee, who has not been named. How? They somehow "pushed the wrong button" ...twice!

I find this explanation absurd. I can only find one example of a false alarm similar to the one in Hawaii, and this took place way back in 1971 with a mix-up of tapes leading to a broadcast warning of imminent attack on the U.S. After this event, the alert system was subject to streamlining and stopgaps designed to prevent it from ever happening again. During the false alarm of 1971, over six attempts were made for cancellation broadcasts, the first one within about ten minutes of the initial false alarm. In Hawaii, no cancellation was attempted for nearly 40 minutes.

To add to the overall strangeness, there was yet another false missile alarm in Japan within the same week! Yet again, this alert was immediately attributed to North Korea, but at least this time the alert was corrected 5 minutes later instead of 40.

To me, this smells of a psyop; a test to gauge public reactions to a threat, as well as planting preconceived notions of a particular bogeyman. The public did not disappoint.

Eye witnesses described people "running and crying in the streets," completely bewildered as to what to do. An associate of mine (who is also experienced in preparedness) was in Hawaii at the time of the event. She related to me that her family decided to shelter in place because there were no indications that fallout shelters were available anyway. Other people tried to lower their children into the sewers in an effort to escape a nuclear blast. Here is a video showing the false missile alert causing hysteria in Hawaii:

(As a side note, sheltering in a sewer during an actual nuclear event is the height of stupidity. Nuclear blasts send irradiated particulates into the air. These particulates then settle in the streets or are washed out of the air by rainfall. This water becomes a highly concentrated dose of irradiated particulates which are then drained down into the sewers. You might survive the initial blast, you might not, but you are certain to die from radiation if waiting out the attack in a sewer. Shelter in a dry basement instead with as much matter density between you and the outside as possible. Keep in mind that whatever place you choose to shelter is where you will likely have to stay for at least two weeks, or until the nuclear half life of the particulates has run its course.)

Obviously the average American is completely unprepared for a real attack of a minor magnitude, let alone the magnitude of a nuclear blast. Perhaps this reaction in Hawaii was so prevalent because Hawaii tends to be left leaning to the extreme, and leftists are generally poorly prepared for anything beyond a cancellation by their manicurists. That said, the fact that this "mistake" happened to take place in Hawaii and Japan which are already under stress due to the ballistic missile tests of North Korea is an interesting coincidence indeed.

Seeing what the reaction in Hawaii was like, a real attack presents an alluring opportunity for the establishment. The pure terror involved in just the potential of a nuclear attack is palpable, and this fear makes the masses easy to manipulate. Should a real attack take place, either by North Korea or by other agencies through false flag, when is the most advantageous time?

The history of Korean conflict suggests a surprise attack is a probable strategy. North Korea is a nation trapped in time, and North Korean authorities remember the success of the surprise attacks they used to launch the first Korean war in June 1950. These attacks allowed North Korea communists to overrun South Korean forces within days.

In terms of a false flag event, these seem to occur in the midst of other "training exercises" or distracting events. I can't think of anything more distracting for South Korea than the Winter Olympics, set to take place February 9-25 in Pyeongchang.

I would note the sudden friendly demeanor between North Korea and South Korea just before the Olympics, including the offer by North Korea to participate in a joint women's hockey team during the games (something that has never happened before). Would it not be a shame if this ember of goodwill was snuffed out by a North Korean missile test or attack of some kind? The "betrayal" would be excellent war fuel, like a new Pearl Harbor.

As Secretary of State Rex Tillerson stated recently, the threat of war with North Korea is "growing" despite the recent "thaw" in relations due to the Olympic Games. The thaw is partially predicated on the North Korean demand that all South Korean and US military exercises be cancelled during negotiations.

The typical response by skeptics will be that any attack by North Korea would be met with massive nuclear response. I would point out that a full-scale nuclear response is unlikely in the region. First, a nuclear onslaught on North Korea also puts its neighbors (our allies) at risk of considerable radiation exposure. The argument may be made that only a conventional assault would be safe for the surrounding countries, not to mention the Pacific U.S., which could see radiation exposure as well.

Second, a nuke attack is not necessarily going to prevent the need for a ground invasion. North Korea has more than 8,000 underground facilities that we know of and has been preparing for bombardment for over 60 years. Its mountainous terrain also presents serious doubts as to the effectiveness of bombardment. This is not just my assessment but the assessment of the Department of Defense. The idea that one big nuke button is going to solve the problem is childish delusion by people who watch too many movies.

Hopefully, the Olympics will conclude without incident and the skeptics are proven correct on North Korean tensions being nothing more than a sideshow amounting to a lot of bluster. But for now the level of conflict staging over the past year should be taken seriously, and the panic that could develop if a war does erupt should be concerning to us all. In times of crisis, people act stupidly and they beg for help from anyone offering, even if it is someone with malicious intent. Fearful individuals will give up almost anything to escape uncertainty, including their freedom and their common sense. And nothing causes fear quite so much as thoughts of war and mushroom clouds.

According To These 3 Measures The Stock Market Is Now Literally Off The Charts

Three aspects of the stock market that I follow closely are fundamentals, sentiment and technicals. According the measures below, all three now show the stock market has entered uncharted territory.

The first chart comes from my friend, John H., and shows his margin-adjusted version of the cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio. This improved version of the CAPE ratio (improved because it has a greater negative correlation with future 12-year returns) shows equity valuations have now surpassed both the dotcom mania peak in 2000 and the 1929 mania peak.

This next chart shows that investors today are employing more leverage than ever before. Even when you adjust margin debt for the overall size of the economy it's at a new record high and, to my knowledge, this doesn't include the asset-backed loans at major financial firms which have become so popular in recent years.

Finally, from a technical standpoint, the monthly RSI reading of the Dow Jones Industrial Average shows the stock market is now more overbought than at any other time during the entire history of this index which was created way back in 1896 (chart via Nasdaq.com).

Thus it is fair to say that this is now the most overvalued, overbullish and overbought stock market of all time.

Gold Is Defying Conventional Wisdom; Maybe Conventional Wisdom Is Wrong

If you believe the conventional wisdom, gold should be languishing right now.

It isn't. People are buying gold.

So, what gives? Could it be that the conventional wisdom is wrong?

The stock market seems to break records on a daily basis. It has been on a generally upward trajectory for several years and has skyrocketed over the last 12 months.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve started nudging interest rates up in December 2015 and boosted rates three times in 2017. Most analysts expect the Fed to hike rates three more times this year. Conventional wisdom tells us gold should be way down. Since gold doesn't pay dividends or interest payments, investors typically shed non-yielding assets like gold.

So, with the stock market booming and interest rates rising gold should be falling. But with the rate a full 100 basis points higher than it was in December 2015, the price of the yellow metal was up better than 12% last year and finished above $1,300 for the first time in five years. Gold has climbed more than 2% just since the first of this year.

So, is this some kind of weird anomaly, or is the conventional wisdom just plain wrong?

AJ Bell analyst Russ Mould told the Telegraph that the conventional wisdom is "a total fallacy," and he cited data to back up his claim.

During the seven cycles of higher US interest rates the metal has on average gained 86% between the first increase and the last – and gold is already up by 23% since the first rise of this cycle, in December 2015."

What we really have is a sell the rumor buy the fact phenomenon. If you chart gold against US 10-year Treasury yields, gold tends to sell the rumor of rate hike increases and buy the fact. Every time yields have peaked north of 2.5% over the past five years, gold has promptly rallied. Economists predict that yield barrier should be broken sometime in the first quarter of 2018.

As the Telegraph pointed out, conventional wisdom leaves out a key variable in the equation – inflation.

This year is also expected to see higher inflation in America – and gold is often bought as protection against that environment. As gold is not pegged to a currency and cannot be produced at the whim of central banks, it is seen to be inflation-proof."

In fact, central banks won't generally raise rates unless they believe inflation is approaching their 2% target. In other words, rate hikes signal the existence of, or at least the expectation of, inflation.

As Peter Schiff has explained, inflation is key when it comes to gold.

Rising interest rates are not negative for gold. I mean, the main reason that interest rates are rising around the world is because inflation is picking up around the world. Higher inflation is positive for gold. I mean, it is the most bullish thing for gold. And in fact, when inflation rates are rising, that means money is buying less, right? The purchasing power of money is going down. And that's when you want to own gold."

And while higher rates tend to boost bond yields, inflation is not a friend of the bond market. Bonds lose value as inflation increases. That is bullish for gold because gold is something you would own as an alternative to bonds.

A bear market in bonds is bullish for gold. But for some reason everybody just thinks, well, if interest rates are going up, that just makes gold less attractive because you're giving up the opportunity cost. It makes bonds less attractive, because bonds are falling in value. It makes currency less attractive because interest rates are rising because currency is losing value. But gold won't be losing value. Gold is going to be storing value."

So when you see the guys on CNBC and Fox Business running down gold because the stock market is booming and the Fed is going to be raising rates, just remember that they are parroting the conventional wisdom.

The Fascinating Psychology Of Blowoff Tops

Central banks have guaranteed a bubble collapse is the only possible output of the system they've created.

The psychology of blowoff tops in asset bubbles is fascinating: let's start with the first requirement of a move qualifying as a blowoff top, which is the vast majority of participants deny the move is a blowoff top.

Exhibit 1: a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJ-30):

Is there any other description of this parabolic ascent other than "blowoff top" that isn't absurdly misleading? Can anyone claim this is just a typical Bull market? There is nothing even remotely typical about the record RSI (relative strength index), record Bull-Bear ratio, and so on, especially after a near-record run of 9 years.

The few who do grudgingly acknowledge this parabolic move might be a blowoff top are positive that it has many more months to run. This is the second requirement of qualifying as a blowoff top: the widespread confidence that the Bull advance has years more to run, and if not years, then many months.

In the 1999 dot-com blowoff top, participants believed the Internet would grow at phenomenal rates for years to come, and thus the parabolic move higher was fully rational.

In the housing bubble's 2006-07 blowoff top, a variety of justifications of soaring valuations and frantic flipping were accepted as self-evident.

In the present blowoff top, the received wisdom holds that global growth is just getting started, and corporate profits will soar in 2018. Therefore current sky-high valuations are not just rational, they clearly have plenty of room to rise much higher.

Skeptics are derided as perma-bears who've been wrong for 9 long years. This is the third requirement of qualifying as a blowoff top: Bears and other skeptics are mocked and/or dismissed as irrelevant.

Meanwhile, observers who haven't drunk the punch recognize this as the final leg of a 9-year orgy of central bank stimulus. Pump $14 trillion into global financial assets and all sorts of wonderful things happen, especially if the central banks make it clear in public statements that they will "do whatever it takes," i.e. assets will not be allowed to decline.

Consider the psychology in play: central bankers have sought to convince private-sector players that central banks will never let markets decline, and so the smart strategy was to buy the dips, and buy every new high--in essence buy, buy, buy and don't bother hedging long positions, as there was no need to squander money on hedges against declines that would never happen.

Now the central banks are facing runaway asset bubbles that are the direct consequence of their promoting the belief that "central banks will never let markets go down."

So how do central banks deflate the bubbles gently? How do they change the market psychology without triggering a crash? If central banks cut off the stimulus, and send messages that "now we will let markets decline," then what's the rational response? Sell, and sell everything now rather than ride the bubble collapse down

As I've noted before, "We live in a system of human emotions that masquerades as a science (economics)." Central bankers are deluding themselves if they think they can calibrate and fine-tune human emotions. When the Bullish certainty that "central banks have our backs" erodes, the switch to bearish impulses to sell before everyone else sells will be sudden and irreversible.

In other words, the central banks have guaranteed a bubble collapse is the only possible output of the system they've created.

The Dollar Is Collapsing

The last four days have seen the US Dollar plunge 2% - the biggest drop since June 2016...

As the chart suggests, there is a key driver of the dollar's moves. China's FX policy!

One might argue that the Renminbi has been a more stable store of value to the Dollar in recent months.

The dollar is now pushing precariously close to its weakest since January 2015.

USDJPY is plunging (as Yen strengthens) which suggests The BoJ better do some more ETF buying...

The Dollar weakness is dragging the Euro higher, entirely decoupled from rate-differentials (once again).

And at the same time, hedge funds and other speculative investors have amassed the heaviest long positions on the euro ever, according to the latest CFTC data.

The Group-of-10's best currency in 2017 is getting fresh momentum from the prospect of a September end to European Central Bank stimulus and an upswing in growth.

And as The Dollar Index plunges, so Emerging Market FX strengthens...

Led by a resurgence in the Mexican Peso, MSCI EM FX Index is now at its strongest since 2011.

Financial Road Map for 2018 Date

Globally, average short term rates have remained around zero. That will be a core pattern throughout 2018.

Central banks may tweak a few rates here and there, announce some tapering due to "economic growth", or deflect attention to fiscal policy, but the entire financial and capital markets system rests on the strategies, co-dependencies and cheap money policies of central banks. The bond markets will feel the heat of any tightening shift or fears of one, while the stock market will continue to rush ahead on the reality of cheap money supply until debt problems tug at the equity markets and take them down.

Central bankers are well aware of this. They have no exit plan for their decade of collusion. But a weak hope that it'll all work out. They have no dedicated agenda to remove themselves from their money supplier role, nor any desire to do so. Truth be told, they couldn't map out an exit route from cheap money even if they wanted to.

The total books of global central banks (that hold the spoils of QE) have ballooned by $2 Trillion in assets (read: debt) over 2017. That brings the amount of global central banks holdings to more than $21.7 trillion in assets. And growing. Teasers about tapering have been released into the atmosphere, but numbers don't lie. 

That's a hefty cushion for international speculation. Every bond a central bank buys or holds, gets a price-lift. Trillions of dollars of such buys have artificially lifted all bond prices, and stocks because of the secondary-lift effect and rapacious search for self-perpetuating returns. Financial bubbles pervade the world.

Central bank leaders may wax hawkish –manifested in strong words but tepid actions. Yet, overall, policies will remain consistent with those of the past decade to combat this looming crisis. US nationalistic trade policies will push other nations to embrace agreements with each other that exclude the US and shun the US dollar.

Meanwhile, here are some themes to watch for 2018:

1) Central Bank "Tightening" and "Tapering": More Talk than Action

The Fed predicted three hikes for 2017, and for the first time in three years of announcing rate increases, met its own forecast. Thus, Federal Funds Rates rose by 75 basis points.

In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept rates in the zero percent range. Gearing up to Brexit, the Bank of England raised rates by a mere 25 basis points. In Japan, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept rates negative. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) didn't alter its benchmark rate this year, though it did increase its medium-term lending facility and its open market reverse repo agreements by a whopping 15 basis points in 2017. Those aren't exactly definitive tightening bias moves.

The ECB announced a "tapering" bias, but in practice, merely cut its monthly purchasing pledge while extending the total period of purchasing. This was a typical central bank 'bait-and-switch' maneuver, the net effect of which will be more QE, not less.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's snap election victory last fall secured BOJ head, Haruhiko Kuroda in his spot, or at least, provided a green light for more easy money provisions to the Japanese capital markets.

In the US, Jerome Powell will assume the helm at of the Fed on February 4. How different will his policies be from those of Janet Yellen or Ben Bernanke? Not much. He voted in favor of the Fed's monetary easing programs (even with hesitation) every time. Powell will embrace the same unlimited easy money policy on any sign of market weakness, as the global web of central banks remains as omnipresent as ever. 

2) Rising Stock Markets for Now; But on Shakier Ground

Global stock markets, being the easiest place to park cheap money will rise at first in 2018. This will take place on the back of another spurt of record corporate buybacks. The move will carry on due to a self-fulfilling prophesy of return-seekers (from hedge to pension funds) until met by a span of corporate or bank scandals or geo-political risk.

In the US, the Dow Jones finished the year up 28.11% adjusted for dividends (compared to 16.47% adjusted for dividends in 2016.) President Trump took credit for the equity euphoria, as Obama and other presidents have done in the past.

The reality is that stock markets were bolstered by historically cheap money and more than $14 trillion of QE. If the Fed (or any major central bank) was to unwind the $4.5 trillion of assets it's holding, markets would plummet. That's why the Fed isn't moving much, nor are other central banks, to truly reduce the size of their artificial market intervention. But when markets fall back to earth – the drop will be quick and painful.

On the flipside, there's economic reality. Job growth is at its slowest pace since 2011, wage growth is relatively stagnant and job market participation sits at four-decade lows. While the stock market continues to shatter records, the real economy remains left behind.

3) Expanding Debt and Corporate Defaults

Debt is at epic levels any way you slice it, public debt, corporate debt, credit card debt, student loan debt. There will be a tipping point – when money coming in to furnish that debt, or available to borrow, simply won't cover the interest payments. Then debt bubbles will pop, beginning with higher yielding bonds. Leverage is a patient enemy.

Fueled by low rates and a strong investor appetite, debt of nonfinancial companies in the US has accelerated rapidly, to $8.7 trillion, a figure equivalent to more than 45 percent of GDP. Nonfinancial corporate debt outstanding grew by $1 trillion over the past two years. US tax cuts will propel more issuance at first, due to the perception of more money available later with which to repay it. That is not the same as actual profits. 

This is the year where borrowing fueled by central banks slams into a wall of growing defaults. Expect corporate defaults to rise on the back of even slight rate hikes. Defaults will deepen in non-Asian emerging markets first. That's because those currencies haven't done as well against the US dollar as in other countries, and central banks and governments aren't as able to sustain that debt through various intervention maneuvers.

Meanwhile, major central banks will find ways to fuel corporate bond markets to stave that crisis off as long as they can. The ECB's corporate buying program kicked into high gear in 2017, for instance, driving corporate spreads and rates downward. The ECB's corporate sector purchasing program (CSPP) will expand the ECB's corporate bond holdings to over 20 percent of its whole book, double today's percentage. 

Other central banks will try to do the same, but face headwinds. China has a $3.4 trillion corporate bond market showing signs of struggle. With more than $1 trillion of local bonds maturing in 2018-19, it will become increasingly expensive for Chinese companies to roll over financing, which is why the PBoC will maintain its QE programs in 2018.

4) Weakening Dollar, Rising Gold and Silver Prices

The dollar index that tracks the dollar against other major currencies (including the Euro and the Pound sterling) hit 14-year lows in 2017. As the index dropped accelerated, it exhibited a counter-historical diversion from the behavior of the US stock market. That pattern looks set to continue in 2018, despite any minor US rate increases that did not serve to bolster the dollar against other major country currencies last year.

It's also counter-intuitive for the currency coupled with rising rates to underperform the one with easier policy. Yet, that's what happened between the US dollar and the Euro in 2017. The Euro's surge will carry on given that its strength better reflects surrounding economic reality, than the dollar does for the US, where the stock market has far outpaced economic factors like wages and job force participation levels.

Similarly, gold and silver will rise against the US dollar, as bitcoin enthusiasts and gold bugs converge. Nations like China, India and Russia continued to stockpile gold in their quest to diversify against the dollar last year. China's Gold Bar Demand rose by more than 40%. The more gold these nations buy, the more the dollar could decline relative to their currencies, especially if they sell US treasuries, or reduce purchases, to buy gold. Even my old firm, Goldman Sachs noted the bitcoin boom hasn't dampened gold demand.

5) Ongoing Economic Power Shift from the West to the East

The economic power shift from West to East, and from the US dollar to the Chinese yuan, will continue for economic and geo-political reasons as China forges more solid global trade relationships and the US retains its nationalist stance. 

Given the Trump administration's isolationist and pro-bilateral trade agreement doctrine, China will augment its economic, military and diplomatic presence globally. The Chinese government has invested billions in the BRICS Development Bank and Asian regional organizations like ASEAN. That type of long-term groundwork will expand in 2018.

As it did in 2017, Japan embarked upon greater cooperation with India and Russia to hedge its US relationships. The Japanese economy also hit a growth streak in 2017. Its economy has been expanding since the start of 2016, the longest streak since 1999.

Japan will keep developing its Eastern influence and seek new relationships as Prime Minister Abe consolidates his power. For the Bank of Japan, that means, despite some talk to the contrary, maintaining its aggressive QE program. The ongoing supply of cheap money will provide a bid to the Japanese stock market and massive liquidity to its banks.

6) Easy ECB policy / Sterling Rising into Brexit

In 2015, Mario Draghi, the head of the ECB, decided to extend Euro-QE into March 2017. Then, he extended Euro-QE to December 2017, with a promise to do more if necessary. There was taper talk in the ECB's QE program this year. In October, the ECB announced, that starting in January 2018, its asset purchases will follow a monthly pace of €30 billion until the end of September 2018, "or beyond, if necessary." Ultimately, on an absolute value basis, the move was camouflage that will lead to more QE for Europe, not less. 

Over in the United Kingdom, having fallen 14% in 2016 due to Brexit anxiety, the Pound executed an impressive rise helped along the way by the BOE's 25 basis rate hike. The Pound recorded its best annual performance against the dollar since 2009, with an almost 10 percent rise. Meanwhile, the Euro gained an impressive 14.1 percent vs. the dollar.

Brexit is still looming. Yet, the Sterling has had a good run, and given the receding uncertainty over what Brexit could look like, this trend should extend in 2018. Once everyone realizes that UK banks aren't moving to Frankfurt no matter what Brexit looks like, the Sterling will outperform the Euro. This will be positive for UK banks that have better capital cushions and are considered more stable.

7) Infrastructure Focus

Currently, the US federal government spends about a modest $100 billion annually on infrastructure. States and cities have tapped out at $320 billion in allocated funding. How they could afford increases at more than double that rate is a mystery.

Yet, the US remains at a huge infrastructure disadvantage relative to Asia and Europe. Any official talk of a bill combined with associated news coverage alone would lift bidding interest for government contracts, and share prices of companies in the sector.

And we will hear more talk about a bi-partisan infrastructure bill and associated public-private partnerships in the wake of the Trump - GOP tax bill victory and into his second year in office. The problem is that his proposed spending of at least $200 billion over the next decade is contingent on $800 billion coming from state and local sources. Many states don't have the budget to meet such infrastructure demands. This means other funding or increased federal spending will be hotly debated in 2018. Engineering and infrastructure companies will reap the benefits of related expectations and attention.

8) Cryptomania Grips More Tightly

As for Bitcoin, despite its predisposition to being a Ponzi scheme, it should rise (and sustain its high degree of volatility) through 2018 for a few reasons. First, many funds have been green lighted to get involved in the second half of 2018 and ETF's are on the horizon, albeit with a plethora of surrounding problems and regulatory hesitations. Second, futures exchange activity will broaden the market. Third, establishment banks like Goldman Sachs have announced plans to set up crypto-trading desks and promoted the possibility of bitcoin becoming a legitimate global currency.

There will be growth of the number and diversity of exchanges beyond Coinbase in the manner of PayPal which is already a player in that space, as well as for Coinbase itself. Expect the start of many payment exchanges that can process both regular currencies and cryptocurrency transactions ala the dot com bubble, rendering the idea of crypto-independence more and more fuzzy.

Conversations amongst the financial elite at G7 gatherings and other similar forums will encapsulate more crypto focus. Central banks will ultimately create or utilize some elements of crypto currencies for themselves, and adopt ways to regulate the market, as will regulatory agencies that will focus more on crypto than regular banking activities (both need that monitoring to protect people.) Meanwhile, there will be more buying of cheaper crypto currencies (or assets as I consider them) like Litecoin and Ripple. The fight between those that believe in crypto's decentralized nature will hit a wall of resistance from banks and central banks, but that fight might take years.