martedì 25 settembre 2018

Jamie Dimon: America Will Need 25 Years To Forgive Wall Street For The Crisis

JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon has never been one to shy away from the press. But barely two weeks after he boasted that he could defeat President Trump in a presidential race - inspiring speculation that the CEO of America's largest bank by assets is shadow-campaigning for the Democratic nomination - Dimon is once again making the media rounds, sitting for an interview with CNBC's Jim Cramer before delivering a widely reported address at the World Affairs Council in Philadelphia.

Dimon

It was at this latter event that Dimon offered what was probably the closest he's ever come to a mea culpa for Wall Street's recklessness in the run-up to the financial crisis. With the US economy finally booming again after a tepid, nearly decade-long recovery, Dimon predicted that the public will require 25 years to get over the financial crisis and finally forgive Wall Street.

Still, he believes the government "did the right thing" by casting moral hazard aside and immediately coming to the rescue of the struggling banks, leaving American consumers to shoulder most of the consequences for their reckless behavior.

Here's Bloomberg:

"It's going to be 25 years," Dimon, the CEO at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said Monday at a event sponsored by the World Affairs Council in Philadelphia.

Still, the government "did the right thing" to avoid a disaster, Dimon said, adding that the economy was facing the risk of another Great Depression.

Of course, as we have written extensively, not everyone agrees with Dimon's sanctimonious comments about how "right" the government was in bailing him out, and we suspect it will be a lot more than 25 years before he or the government is forgiven, as Michael Hudson recently noted:

Today's financial malaise for pension funds, state and local budgets and underemployment is largely a result of the 2008 bailout, not the crash. What was saved was not only the banks – or more to the point, as Sheila Bair pointed out, their bondholders – but the financial overhead that continues to burden today's economy.

Also saved was the idea that the economy needs to keep the financial sector solvent by an exponential growth of new debt – and, when that does not suffice, by government purchase of stocks and bonds to support the balance sheets of the wealthiest layer of society. The internal contradiction in this policy is that debt deflation has become so overbearing and dysfunctional that it prevents the economy from growing and carrying its debt burden.

Trying to save the financial overgrowth of debt service by borrowing one's way out of debt, or by monetary Quantitative Easing re-inflating real estate, stock and bond prices, enables the creditor One Percent to gain, not the indebted 99 Percent in the economy at large. Therefore, from the economy's vantage point, instead of asking how the banks are to be saved "next time," the question should be, how should we best let them go under – along with their stockholders, bondholders and uninsured depositors whose hubris imagined that their loans (other peoples' debts) could go on rising without impoverishing society and preventing creditors from collecting in any event – except from government by gaining control over it...

...

President Obama, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and their fellow financial lobbyists at the Federal Reserve and Justice Department are credited with saving "the economy," as if their donor class on Wall Street was a good proxy for the economy at large. "Saving the economy from a meltdown" has become the euphemism for saving bondholders and other members of the One Percent from taking losses on their bad loans. The "rescue" is Orwellian doublespeak for expropriating over nine million indebted Americans from their homes, while leaving surviving homeowners saddled with enormous bubble-mortgage payments to the FIRE sector's owners.

What has been put in place is not a restoration of traditional status quo, but a reversal of over a century of central bank policy. Failed banks have not been taken into the public domain. They have been enriched far beyond their former levels.

Additionally, in what appeared to be another gesture of deference to Trump, Dimon said he agrees with the president that the US needs proper border security and immigration reforms.

He added that Trump is right about trade issues he has been raising with China, but wrong in using tariffs to address the problem.

Just in case you got the wrong idea, Dimon clarified to CNBC that, though he has no plans to run, he believes a CEO could make a good president, adding that Trump "was a CEO."

"I would not say a CEO can not be a good president," Dimon said in an interview with CNBC's Jim Cramer on "Squawk Alley." President Donald Trump "was a CEO," he added.

"Jamie, you know what you sound like when you say these things, right? You sound like a politician," Jim Cramer said.

"I'm a patriot," Dimon said.



Found: The Driving Force Behind The Economy


Found: The Driving Force Behind The Economy

Fake news!

And this is how a meme is created. Complete shulbit will do it for you. Even the Weather Channel is faking it to get eyeballs.

And as if getting caught shulbitting folks would have caused one to stop and say, "Whoah there big boy, maybe we should just report, you know, what's actually happening." Nooo!

Doubling down:

And people wonder why the mainstream media is no longer trusted?

It's a One Way Street

President Donald Trump's national security adviser, John Bolton, says the ICC court is "illegitimate".

"For all intents and purposes, the ICC is already dead to us."

This is significant and to be expected.

We can expect the global cohesion that we enjoyed in the last crisis of 2008 to continue to be less cohesive going forward.

Criminal Probe

I've never tried one but I hear they're worse then civil.

Which makes this a pretty big deal.

As reported by Bloomberg:

Tesla is Facing U.S. Criminal Probe Over Elon Musk Statements.

"Federal prosecutors opened a fraud investigation after Musk tweeted last month that he was contemplating taking Tesla private and had "funding secured" for the deal, said the people, who were granted anonymity to discuss a confidential criminal probe."


And this response from Tesla:

"We have not received a subpoena, a request for testimony, or any other formal process. We respect the DOJ's desire to get information about this and believe that the matter should be quickly resolved as they review the information they have received."

And once this can of worms is opened, who knows what gets found in the entrails of Tesla's accounting department.

"Now that Musk's tweeting has attracted the Justice Department's attention, investigators there could extend their review to other public statements made by the CEO about the company's health, according to one of the people familiar with the matter. Authorities could also look into the circumstances surrounding the resignation of Tesla's Chief Accounting Officer, Dave Morton, after less than a month on the job, the person said."

Luckily for Elon, gullible, dumb investors in their naïveté don't mind too much. They're betting on iron man after all. Hero worship of the most extraordinary kind. The stock rallied $10 on the news.

On the other hand, the bonds are getting spanked like a transvestite in a leopard skin thong — down at a smidgen over 85. Oh and by the way, that's junk status if you're not familiar with such things.

And really, if I'm to be honest with you, I think that seals it. Why?

Well, Tesla can't do a capital raise while they're under criminal investigations and they sure as hell need to raise capital.

The other thing is they're outta time and bureaucracies aren't really known for their speed so we can reasonably except this investigation to take a good amount of time; time Tesla simply doesn't have.

For the time being though, the show must go on.

And speaking of a show....

Wowza!

I've grabbed a half dozen weed stocks at random for your gentle eyes. Take a look.

The funniest of the lot is, of course, Tilray (TLRY), which actually hit $300 a share a few days ago. That makes it worth more than some countries, and while I don't profess to know much about the stock, looking only at the basics I can tell you this: It isn't. Worth. $15billion.

Shorting is tough, and I'll be the first to admit I rarely short.

What I do know is this. Getting long cannabis stocks here and now impresses me as batshit crazy. These things are like the cryptos of 2017. Full of frauds, hype, hope, and happy investors. Not where you're likely to find asymmetry on the long side.

Talking of crazy...

How to Return to the Dark Ages

The PC crowd over in Sweden are hard at work ensuring "disadvantaged minority groups" aren't taken advantage of and attempting to mask the existence of facts. Let's not only pretend that things aren't what they evidently are but let's force everyone else to agree with our asinine opinions.


Hesslow cited empirical research which supports the idea that there are differences between men and women which are "biologically founded" and therefore genders cannot be regarded as "social constructs alone".

The university rector had ordered a "full investigation" into the case and said that there "have been discussions about trying to stop the lecture or get rid of me, or have someone else give the lecture or not give the lecture at all."

There is a reason that the period of enlightenment in the 18th century brought about the birth of what we today know as and recognise as Western civilization. It was a period of truth seeking, freedom of thought, expression, and action.

If we're to be honest, the reason these idiots have modern plumbing and a shop that makes their soy lattes is rooted in this. And now, day by day, they're actively tearing it down. This is NOT good.

The Driving Force of Economic Growth and Development

Queue the hate mail.

After Years Of Pain, Odey Is Suddenly The Year's Best Performing Hedge Fund

It had been a tough several years for LPs in Cripsin Odey's hedge fund, who has for years predicted a market crash which, well, has yet to happen, and suffered dramatic losses as his predictions failed to pan out with his flagship hedge fund plummeting in 2016 and 2017. That did not change his outlook, however, and in his latest newsletter sent earlier this month, he once again flagged his bearish views.

His funds are "positioned for more difficult times, invested in those companies that would be able to take advantage of a crisis, should it come along," he wrote. "Who knows when that happens? As Noah said to the doubters, 'How long can you tread water?'"

However, thanks to a correct bet on Italian bond volatility earlier in the year, The Odey European Inc. fund, which manages about $700 million, gained about 29% this year through Sep. 14, according to the latest HSBC weekly hedge fund tracker, making it the top performing hedge fund in 2018 ranked by HSBC.

And now, in a delightful irony, Odey is taking on even greater gains - on the long side of his book.

As Bloomberg rerorts, the London-based manager is one of the largest shareholders of both Sky Plc and Randgold Resources, the two-biggest gainers of the STOXX Europe 600 Index on Monday, amid a flurry of merger announcements. Randgold surged more than 6% after Canada's Barrick Gold agreed to buy the gold miner in a $18 billion deal, while Sky surged as much as 8.8% after Comcast won the auction for the U.K. broadcaster with a bid of 17.28 pounds a share, a premium of 9% to Sky's Friday closing price.

"I'm very pleased. It was a great price," Odey told Bloomberg of Sky the final Sky deal in a phone interview, adding that he added to his bets when the shares traded at 14.92 pounds. Odey had previously predicted that a deal could fetch as much as 18 pounds a share.

And so, if the world really does end tomorrow, all the pain his LPs took for so many years will finally have been worth it. The only question is how many of them are left.