martedì 15 maggio 2018

US, China "Very Far Apart" On Trade, Ambassador Warns

Despite Trump apparently folding in the ongoing trade war with China by consenting to reingage Chinese telecom ZTE, the two sides remain far apart in the ongoing discussions how to shrink the US trade deficit (and Chinese surplus), and as US Ambassador to China Terry Branstad said on Tuesday, the US wants China to give a timetable on how it will open up its markets to US exports as the two countries are still "very far apart" on resolving trade frictions.

Terry Branstad, US ambassador to China

While a US delegation led by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin presented China earlier this month with a list of demands to tackle allegations of intellectual property theft and other trade policies Washington considers unfair, it failed to achieve any success and the two countries failed to reach an agreement on the long list of US demands and decided to resume talks in Washington.

Branstad, who was present at the meeting, said the Chinese appeared to be "taken back" by the significance of the list, and said that "The Chinese have said 'we want to see the specifics.' We gave them all the specifics in terms of trade issues. So they can't say they don't know what we're asking for."

"We're still very far apart," Branstad said quoted by the SCMP, adding that China has not met pledges to open up its insurance and financial services area, as well as reduce car tariffs.

"There are many areas where China has promised to do but haven't. We want to see a timetable. We want to see these things happen sooner than later," he said at a conference in Tokyo.

Branstad also said US President Donald Trump would like to see a "dramatic increase" in food exports to China. "We'd like to see China being just as open as the United States," he said.

As is well known, the Trump administration has drawn a hard line in trade talks with China, demanding a US$200 billion cut in the Chinese trade surplus with the United States, sharply lower tariffs and advanced technology subsidies. Trump has proposed tariffs on US$50 billion of Chinese goods under its "Section 301" probe. Those could go into effect in June following the completion of a 60-day consultation period, but activation plans have been kept vague.

Meanwhile, China warned that its own retaliatory tariffs on US goods, including soybeans and aircraft, will go into effect if the US duties are imposed.

Branstad said the United States could rescind the "Section 301" tariffs if China moved forward on opening up its agriculture and car markets.

"I think it could be adjusted," he said. "It's possible, depending upon how the trade talks go." Increasing US exports of liquified natural gas could also be an area the two countries could agree on as trade talks resume in Washington this week, he said.

"The United States and China are the two biggest economies in the world. The more we can work things out, the better it's going to be not just for US and China, but for the entire world economy," he said.

On Tuesday morning, just as China's Vice Premier Liu He arrives with a Chinese delegation in Washington Tuesday through Saturday to continue trade negotiations, Trump tweeted that "Trade negotiations are continuing with China. They have been making hundreds of billions of dollars a year from the U.S., for many years. Stay tuned!"

Trader: "Emerging Markets Aren't Heavy... They're Setting Up To Implode"

Despite yesterday's slow drift lower off the early gains, The Dow's 8th win a row and the "best May since 2005" was heralded as proof that all the world's problems are behind us and it's plain-sailing from here to new record highs.

However, as former FX trader and fund manager Richard Breslow warned "I keep visualizing oblivious fun-seekers in danger of getting way out over their skis."

And judging by today's price action - they were...

Stocks down, gold down, bonds down, the dollar is spiking along with VIX...

But, as Bloomberg reports, there are a lot more problems looming...

Emerging markets aren't heavy, they're setting up to implode...

Ten-year Treasury yields aren't struggling with what to do around this distracting 3% level.They've broken back above the, this time, really "psychologically" critical barrier and are coiling for a now inevitable move higher. Do not pass go, do not collect your coupon payment.

The dollar is no longer trying to hold on to recent gains, it's going to run everything else over. And equities are preparing for a renewed bout of illness from geopolitical risk and trade wars. The price action notwithstanding.

All or none of this could come to pass. But it is a collection of trades du jour that one needs to make sure can hang together. And whether their purveyors will be willing to stick with them, even without instant gratification, remains to be seen. It isn't the green or red on your screens that should inform your mood. It's actually meant to work the other way around.

The first thing I'd ask is how much is positions versus view. Both matter, but the former has taken on a significance that can have a lasting, even if not ultimately dispositive, effect on asset prices. Washouts used to take hours or maybe days to be cleared. Now they can last weeks. Or seconds. Made all the worse by the enormous and often blind accumulation of yield grabs.

How many "investors" in Turkish lira or Argentine pesos really had any business carrying this risk? Is today's caning of the lira from President Erdogan's latest, and not groundbreaking, comments or because the much rumored "surprise" rate hike wasn't forthcoming? This is not meant to argue Turkey isn't in an economic mess. But you can't actually make an informed decision without knowing the back story.

Contagion across the asset class can have as much to do with portfolio damage control as any real causal relationship. I shudder when I think of all the inquiries about getting into frontier markets. Last week we were still being told that emerging market economies are in great shape to withstand higher global rates. Not true, but never mind. Today, there is "underlying vulnerability" galore.

But why just pick on EM? European government bonds have spent the last two days behaving exactly the same way. So many people relying on Super Mario to buy their inventory. And then along came Francois Villeroy. And yet, peripheral spreads remain bid.

In equities, that asset we all love to hate, a big leap is being made from a risk-off sentiment to the fact that they trade pretty well. Aren't they supposed to do something bad before being sent to the penalty box? Frankly, I'd rather sell the S&P 500 on a break below 2700 than here. Especially, because the canaries are getting a bit long in the tooth. I'll tell you what: watch the Shanghai Composite against resistance at 3200 if you want an early warning sign.

As for the dollar, just remember that we're back to square one on the year. It neither went to zero nor has it flown. Look at it right now and forget what happened during a very trying first part of the year. It too could be back here from stale positions that no longer were working.

Maybe we're getting closer to a point where not everyone will have the same positions and we can get back to having fun.

The Fed's Treasury Holdings...Reviewing Operation Twist-Off

According to the Federal Reserve, it began normalizing its balance sheet, 

comprised of mortgage backed securities and US Treasury debt, in late

 2017.  In particular, the Federal Reserve holdings of US Treasury's

 have been reduced by nearly $70 billion since peak holdings.  This is 

about a 2.7% reduction in the Fed's Treasury holdings, so far.  

The Fed plans to continue rolling off Treasury holdings as they mature,

 at somewhere between $30 to $50 billion monthly, in a "data dependent"

 fashion likely until they halve their current holdings (give or take hundreds

 of billions).



But, the make-up of the maturity held by the Fed has really radically changed since Operation Twist ended, even before QE was finally tapered out in late 2014.  The chart below shows the rise and maintenance of long bonds (over 10yrs), the rise and fall of middle duration (5 to 10yrs), especially the emergence of short durations (under 5yrs) and now the surging holdings of the shortest durations of under 1 year.
Below, detailing the holdings by maturity.  The impact of the 2011 Operation Twist (selling everything under 1 year and hundreds of billions in under 5 year duration to fund purchases of mid and long duration) was clear.  Interestingly, when Operation Twist concluded...the holdings of middle duration began falling, and have never stopped falling in what I have termed "Operation Twist-Off".
From '09 through early '13 (through QE2), the Fed increased their 5 to 10 year holdings by nearly $800 billion (from $100 billion to $900 B...or a 900% increase...likewise, about a $550 billion increase in long duration, or about 550% increase).  QE 3, essentially beginning in 2013, was used to fund the surge in 1 to 5 year debt as well as top off the "over 10 year" holdings...and adding nothing to the 5 to 10 year bucket.  Then, the Fed began reducing its 5 to 10 year holdings beginning in 2014 ("Operation Twist-off"...lol) and from that time on, the Fed has persistently sold off nearly $600 billion (or 66%) of its 5 to 10 year holdings.  Meanwhile, the Fed has rolled off less than 7% of its long duration, just 3% of its 1 to 5 year duration portfolio, and increased its holdings of less than a year maturity Treasury's by about $400 billion.  At this rate, the Fed will be back to its pre-GFC level of 5 to 10 year holdings sometime in 2019 (the Fed's holdings of under 1 year maturity are already back to their pre-GFC level).  At that point, the Fed will have nothing to roll off or sell but short and/or extremely long duration if it intends to further shrink its balance sheet.
I'm "amazed and shocked" that as the Fed focused its balance sheet reduction solely on mid duration holdings and bought short duration...the short end rose significantly visa-vis the mid and long duration.  So important to note that as all recognizable sources of Treasury buying (save for one) have wound down, ceased, or turned to outright selling...prices and yields haven't reflected this "free market" implication despite continued record federal trade and budget deficits. As a reminder, you are welcome to read about who hasn't been buying US Treasury debt HERE...and who has done all the buying HERE pre, during, and post QE.  In a situation where nothing adds up, that in itself adds up (likewise, remember, Bernie Madoff's #'s never added up, and that was the point).


Fascinating that as the Fed began (and continued) dumping 5 to 10 year debt in 2014 and subsequently ceased QE in late 2014, the two largest foreign holders (China/Japan) would both turn to net sellers while the BLICS (Belgium, Luxembourg, Ireland, Cayman Island, and Switzerland) would take over the heavy lifting of maintaining the foreign bid for US Treasury debt.

And interesting to note that Ireland is the new Belgium, leading the way for shadow banking centers (outside the purview of regulators...or regulations, period) to maintain the bid (and control the yields) for US debt...most likely loaded to the gills with 5 to 10 year US Treasury debt?!?  Why and how the proxy known as "Ireland" added $300 billion in US Treasury debt to the paltry $15 billion held there as of 2009 and superseded Belgium (of all countries) to became America's #3 foreign creditor is a story in itself.


Regardless the BLICS efforts, the remainder of foreigners have eschewed US debt to such a degree that foreign holdings as a whole have essentially stalled since the Fed ceased QE.  This has left the domestic sources to do nearly all the buying.

These domestic sources of buying are led by that juggernaut of funding known in the Treasury reports as "other".  Not domestic banks, not domestic pensions, not insurers, not state or local governments...no it's mutual funds assisting the massive bid from "other", loading up like never before on US Treasury debt and saving America from interest rate Armageddon.

The implications of the Fed having sold off the middle duration while holding all its long duration and buying short duration, well that just may have had some impact on the yield curve.  Perhaps the "professionals" will be good enough to outline the theoretical vs. practical impacts of the Fed buying short duration, dumping mid duration, and holding long duration should have and actually did have on the yield curve.  And vice versa once all the mid duration debt is gone and the Fed has nothing to sell but short and/or long duration.

And just a reminder below of the interplay between the Fed's balance sheet reduction in Treasury's versus bank excess reserves.  Clearly, since QE ended, excess reserves are finding their way out and into the economy (effectively pure monetization that is leveraged maybe 2x's to 8x's...thus $700+ billion turns into $1.5 trillion to $6+ trillion in new hot money since QE ended).  So much for the "Fed will never monetize the debt".

Some may ask "why"?  Why is all this seemingly ludicrous and seedy activity taking place?  Simply put, the world is maturing and as things do this...growth slows and activity can plateau or even subside...but a poorly twisted economic and financial model run by immature "powers that be" cannot and will not (willingly) accept what the world can organically bear.  So, as I have detailed seemingly in a hundred different ways in far too many articles (links available on the sidebar of the blog), every lever is being pulled and every future income spent to maintain the appearance of growth and prosperity in the here and now.  Very sadly, there will soon be a terrible price to pay for this hubris.  

"Cash Is King" Again - 3-Month Bills Yield More Than Stocks

'Reaching for yield' just got a lot easier...

For the first time since February 2008, three-month Treasury bills now have a yield advantage over the S&P 500 dividend yield (and dramatically lower risk).

Investors can earn a guaranteed 1.90% by holding the 3-month bills or a risky 1.89% holding the S&P 500...

The longest period of financial repression in history is coming to an end...

And it would appear TINA is dead as there is now an alternative.

The "Vollgeld Initiative" - Switzerland's 'Once-In-A-Lifetime' Chance To Save The World

It's called "Vollgeld Initiative" – in German, meaning more or less "Referendum for Sovereign Money". What is "Sovereign Money"? – Its money produced only by the Central Bank, by the "Sovereign", the government, represented by its central bank. Money created in accordance with the needs of the economy, as contrasted to the profit and greed motives of the banking oligarchy – what it is today; money creation at will, by private banking.

The people of Switzerland are called to vote on 10 June 2018 whether they want to stop the unlimited, unrestrained money-making by the Swiss private banking system, and to return to the "olden days", when money was made and controlled only by the Central Bank; and this not just in Switzerland, but in most countries around the globe. Switzerland is one of the few sovereign countries within the OECD, and possibly worldwide, that has the Right of Referendum written into her Constitution.

With 100,000 valid signatures anybody can raise a referendum to amend or abolish a law, or to create a new one. – This is a huge privilege to Right a Wrong.

Most Swiss and probably most westerners in general don't even know that the loan or mortgage they get from their bank is no longer backed by the bank's capital and deposits. How could they? Instead of being told the truth, they are being lied to, even by their own party and politicians. And that in the case of Switzerland, by nobody less than the CEO of the UBS, the largest Swiss bank. Just watch this short video (in German and Italian – 2 min)

Lying is a felony, hence Mr. Sergio Ermotti, CEO of UBS, should be prosecuted. Unlikely to happen, though. What Mr. Ermotti in essence says in this interview is that loans are backed by deposits. This is directly contradicted by the Swiss National Bank and the German Bundesbank (Central Bank). They say that "today about 90% of all the money is accounting money, created by loans the banks make to enterprises and private citizens. Pretending that banks use deposits to make loans, is not true." The latter part was specifically expressed by the German Bundesbank. – So, how come Mr. Ermotti, CEO of UBS, wouldn't know that?

Switzerland, fully embedded in the globalized western banking system, absorbed by it, has a chance to tell the world that the only way to control and get on top of the cycle of financial and economic crises is to reign-in the bottom-less money production – the debt-interest-profit driven banking system, a Ponzi scheme that cannot survive (financing debt with more debt); the abhorrent uncontrollable debt-profit cycle that has brought misery to humanity – just look at Greece. With money production controlled by the respective central banks, for example, in France and in Germany, the senseless indebting of Greece by German and French banks would not have been possible, in which case the troika's (ECB, European Commission and IMF) so-called bail-outs, or 'rescue packages', would not have been possible either. Hence no doubling of Greece's debt – and Greece would be well on her way to recovery.

The point is that these too-big-to-fail banks have become also too big to control, and of course they do not want to be controlled. They have the (political) power to shed off any control. They want to continue creating debt, lending money not for economic development, but for profit of their shareholders. Banking for development has stopped a long time ago. The only banking for development is public banking, and that is almost non-existent – so far – in the west; except for North Dakota and soon New Jersey – and a number of other US States are considering public banking as a means of bringing back the true sense of banking – i.e. for economic development. But with the current FED-Wall Street bulldozer's onslaught on the world, they are fighting against windmills – but even windmills are fallible.

By and large, in the west it's corporate banking for profit. And thanks to the public's ignorance and disinterest, deregulation took place behind our backs.

Did you know for example, that to become a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO), a nation has to deregulate its banks – to put them on a platter at disposal of the globalized banking sharks? – Probably you didn't. Such decisions are never publicized.

Again, the Swiss with a Yes vote on 10 June could change this for themselves and send a signal to the rest of the world – suggesting to take back their financial, economic and monetary sovereignty – cutting the link to globalized usury banking that enslaves the poor in favor of the rich. Literally.

Will Switzerland seize this unique opportunity to broadcast this powerful message to the (western) world? Saying in the clearest voice possible – enough is enough, we are going back to regulating our banking system, through 'new-old' legislation and through the only institution that really has the Constitutional power to create money – the Swiss National Bank?

The Swiss, an enormous influence in international banking – good or bad – could become a trail blazer for a new economic model, to demonstrate how ell well an economy can run without following the global trend of unlimited money supply – which serves only the banks by indebting the nations and the people. They could put a halt to the seemingly out-of-control economic rollercoaster that brings only misery to people, unemployment, broken homes and businesses, decimated social safety nets, pensions health plans — they, the Swiss could put an end to it and become an economically and financially independent nation with a healthy economy for the wellbeing of the people – not of the banks.

Will they? Will they grasp this once in a lifetime opportunity to break loose from the banking stranglehold?

The Swiss people are the most indebted of the G20, with 127.5% of private debt as compared to GDP in September 2017. The trend is on the rise. The United States, where deregulation started in the 1990s under President Clinton before it became 'globalized', was number seven with 78.5% in September 2017. – According to an OECD 2015 report, mortgages account for 120% of GDP, by far the largest proportion of all OECD countries. – Do the Swiss know that? – Some probably do, but the majority most likely does not. Ever-so-often the Swiss National Bank (Central Bank) issues a routine warning about private and particular mortgage debt – as it is an ever-raising risk for highly indebted families. An economic crisis, loss of a job – and a family fails to meet mortgage payments – bingo, foreclosure. The same as in 2008, 2009 and going on.

Well, do you know that in Switzerland first mortgages do not have to be amortized? In fact, banks encourage you not to repay your mortgage, but just keep paying interest. Many mortgages are passed on with the related real estate from generation to generation. So, you never really own your house. The bank does. And the bank earns the money on your house, as well as calls the final shots on what is to happen with your real property, in case it is being sold.

"Free money" – as it could also be called, is money made indiscriminately without backing. It has many negative effects – the risk factor, as mentioned before – and the bubble effect on the housing market which in turn increases the risk for houseowners, because sooner or later bubbles burst. The only winners are the banks.

Why can the banks just make mortgage loans without requesting amortization? – Because they are afloat with money. Because, of course, they just make money with loans – the 90% which are not central bank made money. And the more loans they have outstanding, the more interest they earn. They earn money for doing absolutely nothing. For a mouse-click. Interest accumulates on its own. And debt is today's foremost tool to enslave people, nations, entire continents.

This is what the Swiss could change by accepting this referendum, by Voting YES to Vollgeld. It would refrain banks from creating money and return the responsibility to the central bank, where it is to be located according to the Swiss Constitution. It would force banks to be more prudent in issuing mortgages and personal debt – it would provide for a more stable economy and for a financially less vulnerable personal life. It would gradually take some air out of the real estate bubble – a healthy feature for any society.

Again, are the Swiss going to vote for what is best for them? – Probably not. – But why not? – Because they are subjected to an enormous anti "Sovereign Money" campaign by the banking and finance sector, by the 'built-in' lobby. Yes, built-in, because in Switzerland Parliamentarians have the right to represent as many corporations, banking and otherwise, in their Boards of Directors, as they please. Yes – this is another special feature of Switzerland, also unique among OECD countries. – How many Swiss are aware of this?

Is it therefore a surprise that the Swiss are being utterly brainwashed to vote against their own interest? – As they have done so often in the past – and frequently to the utter surprise of neighboring countries.

In addition – and this is where another feature of the Swiss Un-Democracy enters: The Swiss Federal Council, the Swiss Executive, takes for itself the privilege and right – I have no clue from where, it is nowhere written in the Constitution – to issue sort of an edict before every national vote or referendum – "advising" the people how they should vote. With a public that oozes of comfort, where consistently less than 50% go to the polls, largely because of disinterest, such a proclamation has a huge impact.

In this case, the Swiss Government, its Executive, has already and already for a while repeatedly "advised" its populace to vote 'no' to the Vollgeld Initiative. And surprisingly every major party goes along with it, including the socialists and other left-leaning parties. Either they are brainwashed to the core by propaganda repeated at nauseam, indoctrinating the people how bad accepting the "Vollgeld Initiative" would be. How bad can be owning your "Sovereign Money"? – Can you imagine? – How much lie must go into such fake marketing?

Or could it be that the Swiss are no longer ruled by Bern, nor has the Swiss Central Bank much to say about Swiss monetary policy, but they may be ruled by an international and globalized banking cartel that puts so much pressure on the Swiss government, that it could almost be interpreted as blackmail? – Why otherwise, would intelligent people advise and vote against their own and proper interests?

*  *  *

My dear Swiss compatriots, this is the chance of your lifetime. Do yourself a favor by voting YES to the "Vollgeld Initiative". Not only will you do yourself and the Swiss economy a favor, by bringing the latter back to sovereign control, you would most certainly make world-headlines and, who knows, inspire the peoples of other countries, who are sick and tired of their enslavement by banks, to request that their Central Banks alone can make money – in the amount that corresponds to the needs of their economies – no longer according to the profit-and-greed requirements of the globalized banking oligarchy.

Turkish Lira Crumbles After Erdogan Says He Will "Take Responsibiliy For Monetary Policy"

In the latest distress signal from one of the most troubled corners of the emerging markets, this morning the Turkish Lira plunged to fresh all time lows against the dollar after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he intends to tighten his grip on the economy and will take more responsibility for monetary policy if he wins an election next month, which he will.

In an interview with Bloomberg, Erdogan brushed aside the apparent collapse of his economy in a stagflationary vortex, where double digit inflation is racing with daily TRY devaluation, and said that after the vote transforms Turkey into a full presidential system, he expects the central bank will have to heed his calls for lower interest rates... which is bizarre as the last thing investors in Turkey want right now is lower rates. For context, the central bank's key rate is now 13.5%, compared with 10.9 percent consumer-price inflation.

"When the people fall into difficulties because of monetary policies, who are they going to hold accountable?" the cartoonish president told Bloomberg. "They'll hold the president accountable. Since they'll ask the president about it, we have to give off the image of a president who's influential on monetary policies."

In other words, in addition to having recently been granted quasi-despotic, "emergency" powers, Erdogan now wants to also take over the central bank.

Erdogan has routinely criticized the central bank for setting interest rates that he says have helped stoke rising prices, an argument that contradicts conventional economic theory.Central bank governor Murat Cetinkaya has said higher borrowing costs would help anchor the currency, a view in line with orthodoxy.

Bizarrely, expounding on his own unique brand of macroeconomics, Erdogan said that cutting rates would bring lower inflation because borrowing costs would decline.

"Of course our central bank is independent," Erdogan said. "But the central bank can't take this independence and set aside the signals given by the president, who's the head of the executive. It will make its evaluations according to this, take its steps according to this. And I believe this will result in very beneficial steps in the future."

Someone should perhaps explain to Erdogan just what "independent" means.

Immediately after Erdogan's comments hit the tape The lira slid to its weakest level ever against the dollar after his remarks were published, losing 0.6 percent to 4.3942 at 7:32 a.m. Istanbul time.

Last month Erdogan called snap sham elections for June 24, in which a victory (which is guaranteed) would consolidate his one-man rule of a country he's governed since 2003. A 2017 referendum saw the role of parliament weakened drastically and gave the president sweeping authority in the most radical constitutional overhaul since the republic was founded 95 years ago; next month's election will seal Erdogan's full conversion to despot.

"From the moment we move to a presidential governing system, our effectiveness there will be very different," he said. "We're going to do this so we can be held accountable for the responsibility we've taken."

* * *

Erdogan is visiting London, where he is meeting with executives, bankers and investors even as a financial and economic crisis in Turkey grows. Erdogan will also meet U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May and Queen Elizabeth II later on Tuesday.

The outreach comes as Turkey's relations with its NATO allies fray and its diplomatic focus shifts toward Russia and Iran. The country faces the unprecedented risk of sanctions from the U.S., a risk that Erdogan downplayed.

Asked if he was prepared for U.S. sanctions should he consummate the purchase of a missile defense system from Vladimir Putin's government, Erdogan responded that he "can't cut off our ties with Russia" adding that "If we're allies with the U.S., we need solidarity, not sanctions."

Meanwhile, the apparent collapse of the Turkish economy has shaken investor confidence, which is critical because Turkey's current-account deficit demands steady inflows from abroad. The Q1 shortfall reported on Monday was more than $16 billion, almost double the same period last year.

* * *

Commenting on the interview, Ziad Daoud, chief Middle East economist for Bloomberg Economics said that sentiment has been the main reason behind the decline of the lira this year, and Mr Erdogan's comments won't improve that.

"Investors have been concerned about government intervention in monetary policy, which is compromising the independence of the central bank. The President's latest remarks will indeed make some uncomfortable – unfortunately, unnerving investors is the last thing he needs to do if he wants to stabilize the lira."