High-Tax companies are underperforming...
And Junk bonds just hit the lowest since March...
Whether this selling due to disappointment in what is expected to be in the bill... or an expectation that it will not pass anyway - is unclear.
giovedì 9 novembre 2017
Stocks Sink As Tax-Cut Hopes Fade, Junk Bonds Hit 8-Month Lows
Sell the news? Stocks are slumping (following Japan's overnight volatility) as traders await tax-cut legislation from the House Ways and Means Committee (and The Senate will also release its own version).
High-Tax companies are underperforming...
And Junk bonds just hit the lowest since March...
Whether this selling due to disappointment in what is expected to be in the bill... or an expectation that it will not pass anyway - is unclear.
High-Tax companies are underperforming...
And Junk bonds just hit the lowest since March...
Whether this selling due to disappointment in what is expected to be in the bill... or an expectation that it will not pass anyway - is unclear.
Global Markets Stumble, Spooked By Japanese Stock Fireworks
The overnight fireworks in Japan, which saw the Nikkei plunge by 860 intraday points and sent vol and volumes soaring (before recovering most losses), spooked traders in Asia and around the globe, and U.S. equity futures are red this morning, along with European shares and oil. As one early riser sellside desk notes, the Nikkei 225 provided the latest example of choppy markets and the 860 point intraday plunge "got us worried. Is this a warning sign for risk assets?" President Trump's challenge of China for "unfair trading practices" (which he blamed on his predecessors) did not help the calm mood.
"The stock market has run out of a little momentum since the blow-out on the (Japanese) topix so it feels like it's temporarily paused," said Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes. "We are waiting for some news from the Republicans on the tax plans, there is a bond market that has stalled and we've got rather soggy looking emerging markets... We probably need to get U.S. Treasury yields higher to get things going again."
In the aftermath of the Japanese vol spike, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index turned briefly negative having earlier climbed to all-time record.
Already shaken by events in Japan, basic-resources shares weighed on the Stoxx Europe 600 index following a decline in industrial-metals prices. An increase in growth expectations from the European Commission failed to lift stocks as disappointing results from companies including Siemens AG and Vestas Wind Systems A/S added to the malaise. Banks gained, led by Italian lenders after BPER Banca S.p.A. earnings beat estimates. Stocks in Asia earlier rose above their 2007 peak before an intraday reversal in Japanese shares on technically-driven trading pared gains in the region. Sterling edged lower as Brexit talks resumed, while oil halted a two-day drop.
Understandably, the yen was the dominant theme of the overnight session as investors rushed to buy the Japanese currency following the Nikkei plunge; the euro found support after the European Commission raised its growth outlook for the common area, while the pound reversed earlier gains as some hedge funds turned sellers;
Investor attention has been focused on Asia this week, where Trump has embarked on an 11-day tour. In Beijing Thursday, he said China is taking advantage of American workers and companies with unfair trade practices, but he blamed his predecessors in the White House rather than China for allowing the massive U.S. trade deficit to grow. A year after Trump was elected to president, investors are also reflecting on how financial markets have fared in the interim, and a rally that has outperformed all but 4 "new president" markets in US history.
As Bloomberg adds, elsewhere in the overnight session, the New Zealand dollar held onto Wednesday's gains after the central bank flagged it may raise interest rates earlier than expected. The Kiwi was the day's big mover, surging about 1 percent to a two-week high of before dipping to trade at $0.6956. The kiwi soared after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) said the country's fiscal stimulus and the currency's recent fall would lead to faster inflation and likely an earlier rise in interest rates.
Treasury yields were range-bound as markets wait to see the U.S. tax proposal that will serve as the basis for further discussions. The kiwi was near two-week high after more hawkish RBNZ sends New Zealand's 10-year yield eight basis points higher. Aussie dips briefly following surprise drop in housing finance activity and a subseqent short squeeze sent it to session highs; Australian sovereign bonds drift lower with 10-year yield up three basis points at 2.60%. JGB futures dip after mediocre 30-year auction tails 1.1bps.
The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies was 0.1 percent lower at 94.803 meanwhile, as it drifted further from the three-month high of 95.150 set in late October. A U.S. Senate tax-cut bill, differing from one already in the House of Representatives, was expected to be unveiled on Thursday, complicating a Republican tax overhaul push and increasing scepticism on Wall Street about the effort. Some also focused on fallout from Democrat wins in regional U.S. elections this week as signal for next year's mid-term Congressional elections for U.S. President Donald Trump.
"There's very much a risk of disappointment. The U.S. dollar could go through a weakening phase on the back of uncertainty around that tax reform," said Steven Dooley, currency strategist for Western Union Business Solutions in Melbourne. Meanwhile, stalled Brexit talks resume on Thursday in Brussels with no indication that a breakthrough is in reach.
In commodity markets, Brent and U.S. crude oil futures were modestly lower, having hit two-year highs earlier in the week following a 40% surge since July. U.S. data showing a rise in domestic crude production had weighed on sentiment overnight but the Middle East uncertainty in Saudi Arabia limited the losses. Gold added 0.2 percent to $1,283.45 an ounce after rising to a three-week high of $1,287.13 an ounce the previous day. Palladium hovered near a 16-year high of $1,019 while nickel fell by more than 2 percent in London to its weakest since October as hype over potential electric vehicle demand that has been driving it higher eased. The nickel market had been ignoring downside risks from policy developments in supply markets Indonesia and the Philippines, and instead focusing on potential future demand from electric vehicle batteries, said Morgan Stanley in a report.
"We (have) heard little to alter our view that producing NiSO (nickel sulphate) isn't particularly challenging/costly and we see near-term downside risk to price," it said.
On today's calendar, the ECB said economic growth in the U.K. is headed for a prolonged slowdown even as the euro-area economy is forecast to expand at the fastest pace in a decade this year. And in the U.S., tax reform discussions continue. The Senate is due to release a "conceptual mark" of a proposal Thursday, according to a spokeswoman. Expected economic data include jobless claims and wholesale inventories. Dish, Disney, Johnson Controls and TransCanada are among companies reporting earnings.
Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk
- European markets remain subdued, as equities trade mixed with a lack of any real direction
- GBP weaker amid a late follow-through of concerning Brexit commentary
- Looking ahead, highlights include US weekly jobs, ECB's Lautenschlaeger and Constancio
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,588.30
- STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 393.82
- MSCI Asia up 0.1% to 171.99
- MSCI Asia ex Japan up 0.3% to 561.79
- Nikkei down 0.2% to 22,868.71
- Topix down 0.3% to 1,813.11
- Hang Seng Index up 0.8% to 29,136.57
- Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,427.80
- Sensex up 0.06% to 33,239.47
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 6,049.43
- Kospi down 0.07% to 2,550.57
- German 10Y yield rose 0.2 bps to 0.328%
- Euro up 0.05% to $1.1601
- Italian 10Y yield rose 4.5 bps to 1.482%
- Spanish 10Y yield rose 3.0 bps to 1.515%
- Brent futures down 0.1% to $63.41/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,283.82
- U.S. Dollar Index down 0.06% to 94.81
Top Overnight News
- President Trump said China is taking advantage of American workers and American companies with unfair trade practices, but blamed his predecessors in the White House for allowing the U.S. trade deficit to grow
- The European Commission's chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, and U.K. Brexit Secretary David Davis resume talks on the terms of Britain's exit from the EU. Timing and duration in Brussels to be determined
- ECB's head of banking supervision, Daniele Nouy, signaled that she's willing to compromise on controversial plans to toughen rules on bad loans after criticism from the European Parliament that sent Italian bank shares soaring
- EU is giving U.K. an informal deadline of two to three weeks to set out how much it is prepared to pay in the Brexit divorce settlement, the Financial Times reports, citing an unidentified senior EU negotiator
- Hearing on Powell for Fed Chair set for Nov. 28
- Saudi Billionaires Said to Move Funds to Escape Asset Freeze
- AT&T CEO Says He Won't Sell CNN as Antitrust Tension Rises
- Boeing Wins China Orders for 300 Planes Worth $37 Billion
- London House-Price Slump Persists as Brokers See Sales Tumble
- Vestas Plunges Most in 6 Years on Tougher Wind Competition
- BOE's McCafferty Says Banks May Leave Before Brexit Deal Agreed
Risk on sentiment had been in full swing in Asia as stocks continued to edge higher at the beginning of the session, before later paring initial advances, particularly in Japanese assets. Nikkei 225 had been the notable outperformer although reversed gains of 2% as US equity futures dipped, subsequently sparking safe haven flow in the JPY, while some investors also touted profit taking. Elsewhere, the ASX 200 hovered around 10yr highs with iron ore prices seeing another day of gains, consequently supporting miners. Chinese markets traded in mixed fashion with the Hang Seng keeping afloat after encouraging Chinese CPI and PPI data which tops analyst estimates, while the Shanghai Comp fluctuated between gains and losses. 10yr JGBs are a tad lower, while underperformance has been observed in the belly of the curve with the 10yr yield ticking up 0.1bps.
Top Asia News
- Noble Group Posts $3 Billion Year-to-Date Loss as Crisis Deepens
- Inside Noble-Vitol Deal Shows Colonial Pipeline as Top Asset
- Malaysia Says It May Consider Review of Monetary Accommodation
- Malaysian Bonds Face Specter of First Rate Hike Since 2014
- Philippines Holds Benchmark Rate as Inflation Seen on Target
- Bakrieland Says Singapore Court Approves Debt Restructuring Plan
European equities trade with little in the way of any notable price action after a directionless lead from Asia after initial gains were erased. On a sector specific basis, performance has largely been off the back of individual earnings from across the continent with notable movers including Vestas Wind Systems (-16.9%), Burberry (-10.5%), Sainsbury's (-2.9%), Siemens (-2.6%) and Commerzbank (+2.6%). Upside in Commerzbank shares has subsequently lead to some outperformance in financial names with Italian banks also providing some support amid UniCredit's latest trading update and a sector bounceback from yesterday's losses. No sign of any investor angst or dampened demand whatsoever, as 2023 supply was snapped up with only a 1 tick price tail. This, despite a sharp retreat in yields following the BoE rate hike and not much in the way of concession going in to the DMO tap. Note also, the issue does not fall into the more normal 5 year bucket until next year and the average auction yield was just a shade below yesterday's closing level. However, 10 year benchmark Liffe futures have retreated from best levels to marginal new lows for the session (125.45), albeit largely alongside a general downturn in fixed (Bunds just off a new Eurex base of 163.23). In truth, debt markets are lacking clear direction and consolidating recent gains/yield declines/curve flattening.
Top European News
- Denmark's Negative Rates Are Seen Persisting Into Next Decade
- ECB's Nouy Bends on Bad-Loan Plan as Italian Bank Shares Soar
- U.K. Likely to See More Utility Mergers If SSE Deal Approved
- Euro-Area Growth Forecast Lifted Again as U.K. Outlook Dims
In FX, a broadly softer Greenback, largely due to ongoing US tax reform uncertainty, and supportive RBNZ impulses has enabled the Kiwi to recoup more lost ground after the RBNZ stood pat on rates at 1.75%. Accordingly, it brought forward rate hike projections to June 2019 from Q3 previously, while Governor Spencer also contended that the NZD is now fair value (although his deputy McDermott thinks a bit more depreciation is desirable). EUR is back to pivoting around the 1.1600 level vs the Dollar where large (1.7 bn) option expiries reside. USD/JPY has seen very choppy trade in line with the Nikkei, but ultimately firmer on safe-haven grounds, as USD/JJPY retreats from 114.00 again towards November lows. Currently around 113.50, bids are seen at 113.40 and then 113.00, while offers are said to be layered from 114.00-20. Riksbank meeting minutes see several members emphasising the importance of the exchange rate for the economic outlook and inflation prospects.
In commodities, iron ore prices continued to surge higher overnight with Dalian iron ore rising as much as 2% amid the persistent rise in steel prices. Precious metals gained a slight bid following the turnaround in risk sentiment, where Japan equities reversed its 2% rise to trade with losses of 1.5%. WTI and Brent crude futures trade relatively sideways with little in the way of notable newsflow other than Goldman Sachs sticking to their USD 58bbl year-end call for Brent whilst noting the 'potential for high spot price volatility in the coming weeks'.
Looking at today's calendar, data wise, September Germany trade data along with UK industrial production are due. Elsewhere, US initial jobless claims and wholesale inventories are also due. We'll also receive the latest EC economic forecasts while the ECB's Villeroy de Galhau, Coerue, Mersch, Lautenschlaeger and Constancio are due to speak. Brexit talks are due to resume between Barnier and Davis while President Trump holds meetings with China's Xi and Li Keqiang.
US event calendar
- 7:45am: Bloomberg Nov. United States Economic Survey
- 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 231,500, prior 229,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.89m, prior 1.88m
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 51.7
- 10am: Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 0.9%, prior 1.7%; Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Needless to say that the focus for markets today will be on what details emerge from the Senate's version of the GOP tax bill. It's unclear just how much detail we'll get though with some conflicting reports out there. Axios reported that the release of the bill will be delayed however Politico reported separately that GOP leaders are ready to walk through the bill with the GOP conference at 11.30 EST. Thereafter it will be released to the public but the timing is a bit up in the air so we might have to wait and see. Overnight, a spokeswoman for the Senate Finance Committee, Ms Lawless, noted that today's tax proposal will be a "conceptual mark" rather than the legislative details.
Over in markets, the one year Trump anniversary was one of the less exciting days that we've had so far. Initially the tone felt a bit more risk-off with European markets generally closing a bit softer. US markets did however pare early losses into the close at least with the S&P 500 ending +0.14%. That masked another difficult day for banks however, partly influenced by the Washington Post article that did the rounds suggesting that the Senate GOP tax bill could delay the cut in the corporate tax rate by one year. Later in the day, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin also refused to rule out a possible phase-in of corporate tax cuts. Meanwhile victory for the Democrats in the two Governor races in New Jersey and especially Virginia also appeared to play a factor given the midterm elections next year. It remains to be seen whether that will transpire into taking back votes across the rest of the country but nevertheless it was a statement of intent.
Inflection point is in.......
Japan Rocked By Violent Stock Plunge As Nikkei Tumbles 850 Points Before Recovering Losses
Something snapped in Japan today.
With Asian stocks finally breaking out a decade-long doldrum, and hitting record highs earlier in the session, and with Japanese equities starting off the session on the right foot and continuing their recent ascent which until Wednesday had seen them rise on 23 of the past 25 days, Japanese shares suddenly lurched on Thursday, plunging sharply lower after dramatic intraday swings took the Nikkei and Topix indexes to multi-decade highs only to drop in the afternoon on futures-driven trading ahead of the following day's options settlement. All told, in a little over an hour, what had been another solid rally in Japanese stocks turned into some rather sharp clear-air turbulence, with the Nikkei 225 Stock Average plunging about 3.6% from the afternoon-session high to its low for the day.
It all started off well enough: in the morning session, the Topix notched a new 26-year high and the Nikkei 225 broke the 23,000 level for the first time since January 1992, as financial and securities shares rallied.
Then something flipped and in a gut-churning rollercoaster of a move, the Nikkei lurched from an over 2% gain which took it to a fresh 25 year high at the end of the morning session, to a loss of as much as 1.7%. The sudden reversal quickly spread to the currency market, with the yen surging before spreading across Asia: South Korean and Hong Kong equities also tumbled in sympathy. As Bloomberg snarks, "Sydney traders could count themselves lucky their market had already closed before the worst of the sell-off."
It Begins: Pension Bailout Bill To Be Introduced This Week
In the past we have provided coverage of what will likely be the biggest, most politically charged, and most significant financial crisis facing the aging U.S. population: a multi-trillion pension storm, which was recently dubbed "one of the most hated battles of a lifetime" by J. Maldin. The reason, in a nutshell, why the US public pension problem has stumped so many professionals is simple: for lack of a better word, it is an unsustainable Ponzi scheme, in which satisfying accrued pension and retirement obligations requires not only a constant inflow of new money, but also fixed income returns, typically in the 6%+ range, which are virtually unfeasible in a world where global debt/GDP is in the 300%+ range. Which is why we, and many others, have long speculated that it is only a matter of time before the matter receives political attention, and ultimately, a taxpayer bailout.
That moment may be imminent. According to Pensions and Investments magazine, Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown from Ohio plans to introduce legislation that would allow struggling multiemployer pension funds to borrow from the U.S. Treasury to remain solvent.
The bill, which is co-sponsored by another Democrat, Rep. Tim Ryan, also of Ohio, could be introduced as soon as this week or shortly after. It would create a new office within the Treasury Department called the Pension Rehabilitation Administration. The funds would come from the sale of Treasury-issued bonds to financial institutions. The pension funds could borrow for 30 years at low interest rates. The one, and painfully amusing, restriction for borrowers is "they could not make risky investments", which of course will be promptly circumvented in hopes of generating outsized returns and repaying the Treasury's "bailout" loan, ultimately leading to massive losses on what is effectively a taxpayer-funded pension bailout.
The bill would also fund a program at the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. to finance any remaining needs of pension plans borrowing from the new program.
"Any money needed for the PBGC would be a tiny fraction of what it would otherwise be on the hook for if Congress fails to act," said an analysis by Mr. Brown's office.
Sen. Brown's angle was naturally populist, and aimed squarely at those whose pensions are likely to recoup pennies on the dollar under the current investing climate: union workers. Brown told a group of retired Teamsters in Ohio on Monday that the bill will be out shortly.
"It's bad enough that Wall Street squandered workers' money — and it's worse that the government that's supposed to look out for these folks is trying to break the promise made to these workers. Not on our watch. We won't allow that to happen," he said.
No, instead what will happen "under his watch" is that funds collected from taxpaying Americans will be spent to satisfy the ridiculous retirement promises and obligations made over the past few decades, and while the immediate recipients of the funds, i.e. those looking at near-term retirement will be made whole, everyone else, i.e., taxpayers will lose.
And now that the machinery for pension bailouts is finally in motion, we look forward to the next, and possibly final, tear in the American social fabric, that between workers who can't wait to retire to the generous pension promises and all those other unluckly taxpayers, who will have to fund these promises.