Recently a correspondent of mine affirmed that "Euro-Zone Policy Can't Afford Cyprus Collapse". Here my observations: "OK, but than can Eurozone afford a single currency? As Max Planck's Professor W. Schelkle points out Eurozone economies homogeneity is highly dubious, so "one size for all" is necessarily a disruptive constraint and an exchange rate partial flexibilty must be achieved. More, Saxo Bank CEO recently affirmed: 'Is Cyprus Deposit Levy The First Sign Of Widespread Wealth Tax?' Cyprus is only the first in a queue.".
And him: "You have a point. But as long as Europe has the ability to print notes they will linger on. We could see some of the minor economies leaving Euro-zone mmembership. However, do not forget that Italy, Spain and even France faces tough challeneg to bring down the deficit, which is not possible. I repeat NOT POSSIBLE because of the austerity measures required by these nations..................... And lastly do not forget that if we take the global Fx Reserve Currency Composition. EURO has 24.1 pct share................So there is still long way to go.......".
Then I replied: You are right but if I can express an opinion it "SEEMS" not possible and compelling events will drive exchange rates, inside Eurozone, toward a sort of limited flexibility - with a BCE central role - pushing an hypothesis to became reality (Euro 1 and Euro 2 hypothesis is already a limited flexible scheme). I'd explain better: quoting Nicholas Nassim Taleb, the turkey a priori excludes Christmas will come, it's natural and obvious. Unfortunately Christmas comes as any extreme event without clear warning signs. I mean, in the latest years monetary policy has been extraordinarely expansive and in the last year it was abnormally loose, especially in Europe (remember LTRO's and OMT) given the BCE main mission. What's the result? Things got worse and harder to manage as printing money doesnt mean building wealth, its only about "kicking the can" and problems get bigger: unemployment didn't get better, GDP didn't grow faster. It doesnt matter if they bail-out - temporarily - Cyprus as Slovenia is the next in the queue. You say peanuts, all peanuts, but also an avalanche starts as a snowball. If the principle is broken is broken for everybody: if one can exit, doesn't matter the size, everybody can sort out.
His subsequent reply was: "I do agree that European financial system is in a complete mess. Window dressing is not the answer to the problem...............".
And finally me: "I hope I wasn't so assertive to become unpleasant anyway I believe that flexibility overcome always hardeness and exchange rates are a flexibility factor. Will bail out & bail in save cyprus banking system? I do not think so: it will buy time but the endgame is already written. Now its too late we can only limit damages In the future reverting to partial exchange rate flexibility in Eurozone and shrinking public administration costs (mainly the costs of politics: look at Grillo's movement in Italy)".
Then what? You'll say. Simple: next sharp international equity markets correction is deeply rooted in Europe.
Then what? You'll say. Simple: next sharp international equity markets correction is deeply rooted in Europe.